Gusty winds, isolated tornadoes possible Wednesday AM
It’s not often that we talk of severe weather potential this late in the season, but the upcoming meteorological setup argues for a bit of anomalous potential. A potent mid level distubrance and associated height falls will approach the area from Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning. More notably, a juxtaposition of instability and shear on most forecast models is likely to create a corridor of severe weather potential. Exactly where, and when, this corridor develops will obviously have major impacts on our forecast. Today, forecast models have come into better agreement on the idea that this corridor could traverse from New Jersey through NYC, Long Island and parts of Southern New England early Wednesday morning.
The main potential for severe weather will come Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning as a surface low passes just to our northwest, over the interior Northeast. As it does so, maximized forcing will pass through the area from southwest to northeast. Forecast models agree that southerly winds ahead of this front will lead to moisture return and developing instability. In addition favorable kinematics including veering/backing low level winds, favorable low level and bulk shear, will juxtapose with the developing instability to support the potential for severe weather.