It has been almost a week since Hurricane Lee formed, and five days since the headlines got out of control. “Hurricane Lee may be headed for New York”, we heard. “The storm may make landfall in New Jersey”, someone said on a TikTok. As we know, none of these things were true then and they still aren’t now. Hurricane Lee is not going to come close to making landfall in New Jersey or New York City.
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More than seven days after meteorologists first started tracking what would become Hurricane Florence, the weather pattern we have been advertising as “extremely unusual” finally threw another curveball at us. Forecast models over the past 24 hours have come into better agreement on the idea that Hurricane Florence will put on the brakes as she approaches the Carolina coast, coming to nearly a complete halt and turning southwesterly along the coast.
In fact, some models suggest that the storm may not even make an official landfall in North Carolina at all – instead, it will float southwestward toward South Carolina before weakening and moving inland. This has left the public with a lot of questions. What is going on? What does this mean, and should we believe it? Does this matter in terms of overall impacts? Does this new change in the track of Florence really matter for those in its path? The answers aren’t simple, but they are there – and forecast models have been giving us clues all along.
Hurricane Florence weakened briefly this morning, but remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour. The weakening can mostly be attributed to an eyewall replacement cycle or “ERC”, which occurs when the inner eye-wall of a hurricane erodes in favor of a larger, more expansive one. The good news is the temporary weakening of the storm system. The bad news is the window for additional strengthening that occurs afterward.
To make matters worse, Florence is set to enter a nearly optimal environment for strengthening later today. Anomalously warm ocean temperatures, some of the warmest in the Atlantic Ocean, lie ahead of the storm. In addition, low mid level atmospheric shear will allow the storm to properly ventilate. After the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Florence may additionally strengthen today, perhaps approaching Category 5 status.
Hurricane Florence continues to strengthen rapidly this morning, now a Major Hurricane once again with maximum sustained winds over 100mph. The storm is expected to continue to strengthen today as it approaches warmer waters and continues to enter an environment with low shear. This live blog will be updated throughout the day with the very latest information, imagery, and data.