Over the next 24-48 hours, this page will be continually updated with information on Hurricane Florence. The live blog below serves as a constant feed of information. Check back here for the very latest details as the storm strengthens.
Hurricane Florence is still a few thousand miles away from land in the Atlantic Ocean, but forecast models have been throwing up all kinds of red flags in regards to her potential track – and impacts – over the past 48 hours. The systems eventual evolution remains incredibly complicated, modulated by several different features in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere – and likely will not become clear for several days. Still, trends and ensemble signals have become more worrisome over the past few days in regards to Florence’s eventual future.
The system is currently located in the open Atlantic Ocean, 1210 miles away from the Northern Leeward islands. Florence is a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, still shy of Major Hurricane status, but strengthening. It is doing so despite a relatively unfavorable environment, with sub-ideal sea surface temperatures and light to moderate wind shear. Forecast models have largely underestimated the systems intensity thus far.
Happy Labor Day, friends! We hope you are able to enjoy it with family and friends. As expected for quite some time, the tropical Atlantic has emerged out of its slumber as we move into the early part of September. Long range forecast models and the synoptic pattern progression in the atmosphere did a great job of signaling this potential. Earlier this morning, Tropical Storm Gordon formed over the upper Florida Keys. Gordon is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Florence continues on its slow and steady trek into the Atlantic Ocean. The initial suggestion that Florence would track harmlessly out to sea is, well, no longer the only suggestion. The storm system is set to encounter a very complicated path as it moves into the Atlantic – and it may find itself precariously close to the Eastern United States in a weeks time. Read more
It has been a long, quiet summer. While heat and humidity have been recurring forecast themes in the Eastern and Central United States, the weather pattern throughout the tropical Atlantic has remained stagnant, if not dormant. There have been a myriad of factors that have contributed to a very quiet start to the season in the Atlantic – ranging from Saharan dust to anomalously cool sea surface temperatures and everything in between. Over the next week or two, however, the pattern is set to change and the implications could be notable.
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season got off to a fast – and in retrospect, ironic – start with Alberto on May 25th. There have been a few other storms that have meandered around since then (the most notable being Hurricane Chris) but the season has thus far been sporadic at best. It can be more accurately defined as unusually quiet. The weather pattern in place has been arguing vehemently against the development of any tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, specifically in the MDR (Main Development Regions). Sinking air, Saharan dust, and unfavorable wind shear have all been major contributing factors, and unusually cold sea surface temperatures have made the environment even more hostile. 30-Day Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was running near or below the 25th percentile.