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Heavy rain, gusty winds early Sunday morning

The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill, currently tracking through the Mississippi and Ohio Valley, will make a move toward our area later tonight into early Sunday morning. The presence of a very moist atmosphere and lots of lift for precipitation will aid in the threat for a period of heavy rain, late Saturday Night into early on Sunday throughout much of New Jersey, NYC, Connecticut and Long Island. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible.

A localized threat for flooding may emerge, as rainfall will become particularly intense along an area of enhanced lift for precipitation. This area of lift will move from southwest to northeast through the area early on Sunday morning. As it does so, very heavy rain with rumbles of thunder are likely — and urban/poor drainage areas will be especially prone to flooding.

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TS Bill’s remnants still an uncertainty this weekend

Much has been made over the past few days in regards to the potential for heavy rain on Sunday. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are anticipated, by many forecast models, to move northeastward from the Ohio and Mississippi Valley’s into the Northeast States. A weak developing surface low near the area of the mid level disturbance is expected to aid in the development of heavy rain from the Mid Atlantic northeastward toward parts of the Northeast as well, as the system shifts toward the coast.

The problem, however, is that remnants of Tropical systems are unpredictable by nature. The high moisture, high energy, and intricate nature of the pattern in the mid levels of the atmosphere makes it very difficult on forecast models to try and pin down specifics. For us, this means an uncertain weekend forecast. And, yes, the potential that Sunday may turn out to be not quite a washout at all.

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