unsettled – Page 25 – New York Metro Weather

Humidity drops midweek, but only briefly

September 3, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The warmest day of the year occurred in early September, yesterday in fact, as the high in New York City’s Central Park reached 92 degrees. More than the date of the temperature, the actual temperature of 92 degrees being the warmest of the season may be even more shocking. Despite ending around average temperatures for meteorological summer, this calendar summer has featured a peculiar lack of 90+ degree days in NYC (only 5) and no days over 95 F. Granted, there is some variance between Central Park and areas to the west-southwest, but the general idea remains the same.

The humidity is another story — and it made Tuesday’s hot weather even more unbearable. Heat index values approached the upper 90’s with dew points near the 70’s. Generally soupy and humid weather was uncomfortable for anyone who spent a period of time outside. Wednesday, however, features a much less humid and somewhat cooler airmass. Highs in the lower 80’s will feel much more comfortable as a result of this.

NAM model showing highs returning to the upper 80’s on Thursday.

The cooler and more comfortable airmass will only be temporary, however, as mid level heights will begin to rise ahead of a trough over the North-Central United States. Temperatures at 850mb will noticeably rise again by the end of the week, approaching 20 C by Friday. The warm air will return on Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, but dew points will remain fairly comfortable.

The sensible weather on Thursday will differ greatly by location. Models agree on the offshore circulation forcing the development of southeast winds near the area shores. This means an increased likelihood of a developing seabreeze — and cooler temperatures near the coasts. The inland push of this seabreeze won’t have any inhibitors, so it may mean a push of low clouds and a breeze even into the interior by evening. Still, inland areas will rise into the upper 80’s before this occurs. Later in the evening, winds will back from Southeast to West-Southwest.

It won’t be until Friday and Saturday when the uncomfortable, humid and sticky air will return. Highs near 90 are expected on both Friday and Saturday as a southerly flow takes over. Dew points are forecast to increase into the upper 60’s to low and mid 70’s by Friday. Heat index values will approach the mid 90’s once again, and a summery feel will return to the air.

Saturday will break the heat and humidity once again, as a disturbance approaches from the west. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong, are expected after temperatures warm toward 90 in the afternoon with uncomfortable humidity values. The volatile pattern, again, looks to continue through the medium range with bouts of heat and humidity followed by showers and storms every few days.

PM Update: Warmup midweek, unsettled weather ahead

August 25, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Monday was the first in a set of what will likely be three summery days — with high temperatures in the 80’s and a warm sun. Autumn-like weather has taken its grip on the areas weather over the last week or so with pleasant days and cool nights. But the below normal temperatures will take a hiatus, however brief it may be, during the next few days. A building ridge in the mid levels of the atmosphere will aid in the development of a southwesterly flow, which will yield increasing mid level temperatures and warmer surface temperatures as well.

High temperatures on Tuesday will reach into the upper 80’s, feeling a bit warmer than Monday. Drier winds, as opposed to the onshore flow which has kept things cooler for the past few days, will make the air feel even pleasantly warm. Humidity will begin to increase as well, but won’t become noticeably uncomfortable until Wednesday. This will signal the approach of a frontal boundary later Wednesday, which will eventually bring an end to the warmer and more summery weather.

NAM model forecasting temperatures in the 90’s on Wednesday afternoon with approaching thunderstorms. (Temperatures top left, precipitation top right).

Unsettled, cooler than normal weather to continue

August 5, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

In a summer that seems to never want to fully arrive, cooler than normal weather will continue during the majority of the upcoming work week. Tuesday looks to be the warmest of the next few days, as southerly winds pump in a warmer and more humid airmass. Temperatures will respond, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80’s in most locations away from the beaches. But an approaching front will signal the end of this warm weather (what else is new this summer) with showers and storms during the afternoon hours on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

The tail end of the work week looks to feature cooler than normal temperatures once again, behind the aforementioned front, with west-northwesterly surface winds keeping humidity down. Weather that resembles late summer and early autumn will be more common in the next several days than the typical hot, humid weather of early August. The saving grace, in the cooler than normal temperatures, is the fact that the weather will remain relatively dry and won’t feature any significant precipitation events.

HRRR model showing highs in the upper 80’s on Tuesday.

Warm, unsettled weather continues Wednesday

July 9, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Strong thunderstorms powered through the area on Tuesday afternoon and evening, as an energetic trough moved through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms maintained themselves through much of New Jersey on the leading edge of stronger forcing from the mid and upper level trough. As they shifted eastward, weakening occurred due to lesser instability in our area. Still, gust fronts on the edge of the pre-frontal trough mixed down stronger winds aloft, leading to branch and tree damage in many areas. Figure 1, below, shows the storm reports from Tuesday via the Storm Prediction Center. Needless to say — it was a significant severe weather event in the Northeast US.

Figure 1 (NWS/SPC)

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