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NYC Area Forecast: Some Unsettled Weather This Weekend

June 22, 2018/1 Comment/by Miguel Pierre

Good morning! A closed upper-level low over the Midwest will track through the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region through this weekend. This low will open up and weaken into a broader trough as it runs into additional confluence over the Northeast US. As a result, we aren’t expecting a washout with widespread or heavy rainfall for either day of the weekend. But this storm system will certainly cause some unsettled weather at times, especially for Saturday.

NYC Area Forecast: Improving Weather Today, More Unsettled for the Weekend

June 21, 2018/by Miguel Pierre

Good morning! A wave of low pressure that brought some rainfall to region overnight will move further offshore this morning. This will cause any lingering showers to end and skies to clear for sunshine as the morning goes on. This afternoon and early this evening, mostly sunny skies are expected as high pressure over Southeast Canada begins to build south into the region. High temperatures will be very warm with northerly downsloping winds this afternoon–in the mid-upper 80s.

Early tonight, a weak cold front from the north will pass through the region (mostly dry). However, winds will be turning more northeasterly behind this front. This may result in a marine layer with low clouds developing later tonight along some coastal areas. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are expected through tonight. Overnight low temperatures will range from the middle 50s over the Interior areas to middle 60s over NYC and urban areas.

Potentially Record-Breaking Warmth and Unsettled Conditions Take Hold Over the East

February 19, 2018/1 Comment/by Steven Copertino

Good evening!

It certainly has been a wild swing of events over the past week or so, with above normal temperatures, a snowstorm, and now the potential for some record breaking warm weather later this week! This will likely be a gradual process, with the first major changes taking place during this afternoon and evening. A very large upper level trough out in the western half of the country is currently digging into southwest, allowing for a very large mid level ridge to build over the east. This large mid level trough has also spawned a weak, but expansive low pressure system over the Plains today, with numerous showers and thunderstorms extending from the deep south, into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. This large low pressure system has sent moisture north into the region which has been collecting along a mid level frontal system. This mid level front has been responsible for areas of steady rain over portions of New England, with more patchy rain to the south over Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. This area of rain should continue to lift north with the frontal system through the overnight hours, leaving spotty drizzle and cloudy conditions behind. Mid level temperatures will be rising quite a bit this evening as high pressure to our south sends a stout southwesterly flow over the East. This will ensure that conditions stay rather cloudy with much above-normal temperatures this evening. In fact, lows may not drop at all for most of the immediate coastal plain, and may actually rise a bit into the middle to upper 40’s. The only real chance for any cooling looks to be well to the north and west of the city, with lows only getting down into the lower 40’s. Due to some locations still having some snow on the ground and increasing surface temperatures, there may be some areas of fog that develop after dark. These areas of fog could be locally dense, so please use caution if you are driving this evening!

This afternoons national radar mosaic, surface temperatures, mid level temperatures, and mid level heights showing a clear southwesterly flow in place already over the East

Tuesday Into Wednesday

Tuesday morning will likely start off rather mild, with patchy fog and mostly cloudy conditions over much of the Northeast. The mid level warm front will be located well to our north over southern Canada by tomorrow morning, so the threat of rain looks rather low for tomorrow-though some patchy drizzle may be possible closer to the coast. Relatively dry air is forecast to punch into the Northeast tomorrow afternoon, which should help to burn away the vast majority of the cloud cover tomorrow afternoon. With mid level temperatures much above normal and sunny conditions in place, highs tomorrow will likely reach well into the 60’s over much of the New York metro area, with a chance at breaking into the 70’s for portions of Northeast New Jersey and locations to the south of New York City. “Cooler” highs in the lower 60’s will be possible off the north and west as well as along coastal locations due to onshore flows bringing in a more maritime airmass. While not as widespread, tomorrow will be the first day the record high temperatures could fall across the interior locations of the Northeast. Clear and mild conditions should last well into the evening and overnight hours, with southwesterly flow continuing to increase mid level temperatures. This should allow lows to be quite warm for this time of year, with many locations seeing readings stay in the lower to middle 50’s-which could potentially set record maximum low temperatures for this time of year.

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as deep southwesterly flow is maximized over the region, bringing in highly abnormal temperatures across much of the East. The day may start off with some low clouds and fog, but dry mid levels will likely aid in the vast majority of this cloud cover burning off by the early afternoon hours. After that, temperatures will be off to the races across the entire Northeast. Widespread records may fall during the afternoon, as readings soar into the middle to upper 70’s across the Northeast. Lower readings are guaranteed over portions of coastal NJ, CT, and Long Island due to onshore flow that will bring in that maritime airmass once again. Cloud cover will then begin to increase later in the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west, with scattered showers along it. As this front approaches, shower activity will likely be on the steady decline, so only expect broken showers through the area during the evening and overnight hours. Temperatures should fall during the overnight hours as the front passes through the region, with lows still staying 5-10 degrees above normal.

NWS forecasted highs on Wednesday with the circles representing potential records being broken

Unsettled and Mild Into the Weekend

The very impressive mid level ridging over the Western Atlantic will remain in place throughout the remainder of the week, keeping conditions rather mild, with chances at light to moderate rain events. The first potential rain event looks to occur on Thursday evening as Gulf moisture streams up and around the mid level ridging and into the Northeast. A very impressive upper level jet streak also looks to be just to the north of the area, so this will likely promote the development of at least light to moderate rain over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. The chance for rain looks to continue through the overnight hours on Thursday and into Friday, as another upper level system digs into the West. This will create yet another plume of moisture streaming north into East, with moderate rain likely over at least western portions of the Northeast. The models begin to divergence on the last rain threat over the weekend, but this afternoons European model shows a rather expansive area of rain developing over the Ohio Valley and Northeast Saturday night and lasting into Sunday. Despite the run-to-run uncertainty, the overall upper level pattern looks to be one that could support some rather widespread moderate rain over the area, with some potentially heavy showers embedded into the mix due to a favorable/peaking jet structure. Temperatures during this period look to be above-normal, but not as warm as Tuesday or Wednesday, with highs in the 40’s and 50’s. In the longer range, we may have to watch for a potential shift in the overall pattern, but we will dive into this more later in the week.

This afternoons European Ensembles showing a very wet and active pattern in the central and eastern US over the next week

Have a great night!

Steve Copertino

Wintry Mix Exits, Unsettled Pattern Sticks Around Through Next Week

February 7, 2018/1 Comment/by Steven Copertino

Good Evening!

The area of low pressure that moved inland over much of the Northeast is finally beginning to wind down, with precipitation shutting down from west to east. The storm initially came up from the southwest early this morning, producing a wide area of snow and mixed precipitation over much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. The areas that did start off as snow around the New York metro area this morning gradually saw the snow change to sleet, and then light to moderate patches of freezing rain as warmer air in the mid levels began to push north. As mentioned on Monday, there was a chance that the low level cold would be under-modeled as it has many times in the past, and that is exactly what happened this morning/afternoon. Despite mid level temperatures above freezing a few thousand feet above the ground, surface temperatures remained at or below freezing just long enough to allow for quite a bit of freezing rain to fall across southern portions of New England as well as portions of the Mid Atlantic states. This freezing rain caused very hazardous travel conditions for the morning commute, with many folks getting caught off-guard by the unexpected slick conditions. As the area of low pressure continued to move to the north and east this afternoon, warm air began to surge in at all levels, and this caused most, in not all of the precipitation in the area to turn to plain rain. Some locations in southern New England are still dealing with light to moderate freezing rain, while locations well to the north are dealing with moderate to heavy snow.

Continued moderate rain will be likely over portions of the Mid Atlantic and southern portions of the Northeast through at least 8pm, with precip gradually ending from west to east. Colder air will be working its way east as well behind a frontal system, so there will be a slight chance that the precip could end as light snow or a light mix. Temperatures will once again drop below freezing this evening, with much of the area seeing lows drop back into the middle 20’s, with locations off to the north and west likely flirting with teens due to the snow cover. Regardless, conditions will remain hazardous for travel during the evening commute, so please use caution while driving on untreated roads!

This evenings latest high resolution visible satellite imagery, regional radar mosaic, and surface temperatures over the Northeast showing a wide variety of weather conditions

Thursday Into Friday

Conditions will start off rather cold on Thursday morning as an area of high pressure builds off to our west over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will have likely dropped quite a few degrees below freezing during the overnight hours, so expect any puddles or standing water to have frozen over, making for another potentially slippery commute. Black ice may be rather prevalent over the area tomorrow morning as well, so please use caution! Regardless, the rest of the day looks rather calm as the area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley continues to build, leaving most of the Northeast rather sunny. Colder and drier air will be working its way down in the mid levels of the atmosphere from Canada, so we expect highs to generally stay in the middle to upper 20’s. Conditions will remain calm and cold through the evening hours as the area of high pressure continues to move over the Mid Atlantic. As it does so, conditions will become rather favorable for radiational cooling to set up over the Northeast, allowing for lows to drop into the middle teens and 20’s across much of the area.

Friday looks to be rather similar to Thursday, just with a chance of more clouds and significantly less windy. The Pacific jet stream will begin to go zonal over the entire country (west to east), which will signal the start of a warmer period, but also an unstable one. This west to east pattern will allow for multiple impulses of energy to quickly move from one coast to the other rather quickly, but a lack of anything to slow them down along the way will keep each disturbance weak and disorganized. One such disturbance looks to be over the northern Plains on Friday afternoon, which could cause some very light rain or snow to break out over northern portions of the New York metro area later in the day before quickly moving to the east. Major changes will be underway by Friday night, as strong low level flow begins to establish itself from the southwest, ushering in warmer mid level temperatures. This will allow for lows on Friday to mainly stay in the middle to upper 20’s, with some locations staying in the 30’s.

This afternoons NAM model showing significant warm air advection over the Northeast on Friday afternoon, leading to a change to warmer temperatures

Unsettled Conditions This Weekend

Starting on Friday, the subtropical jet stream will begin to expand over the Gulf of Mexico, creating abundant latent heat release which will eventually get caught up in the strong southwesterly flow over the eastern US. Our next system will begin to take shape over the southern Plains on Saturday morning as moisture-rich air runs into cooler mid level temperatures, sparking a large area of precipitation. The zonal jet streak will still be present over the northern tier of the country, and this will only work to enhance precipitation growth and intensity over the south. Snow will be possible over portions of the Mid West through the Ohio Valley where the colder air can hang on longer, as high pressure dives into the central Plains states. Mid level ridging over the western Atlantic will only help to enhance the northward transport of moisture into the Northeast on Sunday morning as light to moderate rain begins to break out. Rain looks to last pretty much all day on Sunday, likely making the day a washout. Due to the progressive nature of this system, flooding does not look all that likely in the Northeast, however there still may be some heavy downpours as precipitable water amounts will be quite high for this time of year. Temperatures this weekend will also be quite anomalous, with highs likely getting into the 40’s and lower 50’s across much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

Another wave may develop along a stalled frontal boundary to our west on Monday, leaving us with another threat at some moderate rain to start the work week. At this time, it appears that the threat for substantial snowfall from either system is rather low, but we will continue to monitor these systems as they draw closer!

This afternoons NAM model showing an impressive moisture feed setting up directly from the Gulf of Mexico

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

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