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John Homenuk

Anomalous cold’s swan song, moderation lies ahead

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Welcome to Five Minute Drill, our new segment where we discuss the weather without bias or favoritism on a local, regional, and national scale as the weather suggests. In the week ahead, we’re discussing the movement of bitter cold away from the Northeast states, but the prevalence of a few weak atmospheric disturbances that may lead to wintry precipitation on Monday evening. We touch on where we’ve been over the past few days, why things are changing, and briefly discuss a Northern Plains winter storm later in the week.

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John Homenuk

Video: Explaining the late-week snow potential

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Much has been said over the past several days regarding the potential for a winter weather event and snow accumulation late this week. And in reality, the potential is quite high. Forecast models, however, have been waffling with the potential for a bigger system and one that remains disorganized and is more likely to produce a moderate event. As forecasters, this keeps our confidence in the event rather low. The specific details and intricate interactions between atmospheric disturbances will ultimately determine how the storm forms, where it tracks, and how strong it is. But at this range, forecast guidance will struggle mightily to pin down the details.

To help quiet the noise a bit, we’ve provided a video discussion which breaks down the setup. In this video you’ll find our concerns, thoughts and ideas as we continue to analyze and interpret the data. Despite the uncertainty, we should begin to gain confidence in the eventual outcome of the system over the next 12-24 hours. You can watch the free video by clicking below. If you are on mobile, copy the video link into your browser.