Posts

Public Analysis: Beautiful Presidents Day Weekend, Unsettled Next Week

After very blustery conditions with harsh windchills the past few days, we’re on tap for a beautiful Presidents Day weekend with clear and dry conditions expected over the entire region

Despite temperatures in the upper 30’s to low 40’s across most of the area this afternoon, the winds that have been present over the past two days due to the large area of low pressure was located to our east has finally moved on. This has allowed the winds to calm significantly and eliminated any real windchills from the area, making for seasonable conditions. This afternoons visible satellite imagery shows very little in the way of any cloud cover as a weak area of high pressure centered near Buffalo, New York remains in control throughout the rest of the day. This  should provide a very nice close to the work week with only high clouds possible towards sunset. Later this afternoon and this evening, a warm front located to our south will begin to move to the north and overspread the area by tomorrow morning. This front should initially usher in some mid-level clouds tomorrow morning, but these should be short-lived as tomorrow afternoon should be an excellent day for outdoor activities as the clouds burn off and the entire area sees temperatures climb well into the 50’s for the NYC metro and NE NJ, while locations closer to the coast remain limited to the upper 40’s and low 50’s. It is also quite likely that given the amount of warm air advecting into the region on Saturday, that portions of Central and Southern New Jersey reach temperatures at or above 60 degrees! This airmass is quite unseasonable for this time of year and most of the area will be running 10-18 degrees above normal on Saturday.

Visible satellite imagery of the Northeast showing relatively calm conditions and little in the way of cloud cover (Courtesy of Simuawips.com)

Visible satellite imagery of the Northeast showing relatively calm conditions and little in the way of cloud cover (Courtesy of Simuawips.com)

Some high clouds are possible Saturday evening as yet another series of weak mid-level disturbances pass to our north as well the south, but Sunday is shaping up to be very similar to Saturday with yet another beautiful day in store. Temperatures in the immediate New York metro area should be able to reach well into the 50’s, with southern locations once again seeing temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal as they climb into the low 60’s by late afternoon on Sunday. As we progress later into the day Sunday, a backdoor cold front will swing through the northern sections of our area and begin to usher in a more seasonable airmass as winds begin to shift from the south, to a more west/northwest. As this front continues on, we can expect a cooler day for Presidents Day Monday with a sharp temperature gradient from north to south across the area, with southern locations remaining in the low 50’s and 40’s for the northern locations. Overall, Presidents Day should be cooler than this weekend, but should remain dry and with very little cloud cover as a high pressure system from southern Canada begins to build south over the area providing continued calm/dry conditions once again.

Afternoon European model showing temperatures on Sunday reaching 18-25 degrees above normal for the entire area (Valid 1pm Sunday)

Afternoon European model showing temperatures on Sunday reaching 18-25 degrees above normal for the entire area (Valid 1pm Sunday)

As we continue on into the work week next week, mid level ridging will increase once more so a return to above-normal temperatures is likely over the entire Northeast. As a series of mid to upper level disturbances work their way east from the very active Pacific jetstream, we can expected our first shot of rain on Wednesday with a more significant signal for precipitation showing up just in time for next weekend as a stronger system works it’s way into the central part of the country. While we’re currently in a period of unseasonable warmth, the potential does exist for a return to colder temperatures and a more active weather pattern later this month and into the first few weeks of March. Make sure to stay tuned for any and all updates over the next few days! For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day.

Have a great Friday and an excellent Presidents Day Weekend!

 

Slow but persistent warmup the next several days

As a warm front struggles to move north of the area today, temperatures have struggled as well — staying generally stuck in the mid 50’s for the majority of the day through the early afternoon. Although some warmer temperatures are anticipated by later this afternoon, the general theme will continue to feature east/northeasterly winds off the ocean waters and cooler than normal temperatures with clouds. A warm front has established itself to our south and west, and while that is providing much of the Mid-Atlantic with warmth, it is leaving us in a damp, marine airmass.

This front will struggle northward over the next few days, but the good news is that forecast models agree it will eventually make it. Friday looks to feature conditions more similar to Thursday than the past several days of this week — although there won’t be as many clouds, temperatures won’t reach much past the 60’s. This will be especially true near the coast, as east/northeasterly winds again bring in cooler marine air.

Read more

April off to a wonderful start with warming trend

Maybe it’s best that we just forget about March as a whole. The only people who would’ve enjoyed March 2014 are those who enjoy cold temperatures and no snow — a rare breed — and so most were lift disappointed and chilly. Spring got off to a slow start, with temperatures running 4 to 6 degrees below average during the month of March. And there was almost no snow to speak of in New York City despite multiple chances for accumulating snowfall. April, on the contrary, will get off to a great start. Temperatures in the mid 50’s to near 60 on Tuesday will mark the beginning of a warming trend which will continue into the middle of the work week.

High temperatures by Wednesday should eclipse the lower 60’s in many locations, as westerly winds and warming mid level temperatures with full sunshine allow for the warm air currently over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to advect eastward. Par for the course this time of year, things will be a bit cooler near the area beaches and shores. Despite the westerly winds, cold ocean waters make it very difficult for coastal locations to stay warm throughout the day in April. By the end of the week, the forecast gets a little bit more dicey with an approaching warm front and the potential for some backdoor-front action from New England.

HRRR model showing high temperatures exceeding 60 degrees west of NYC on Tuesday.

HRRR model showing high temperatures exceeding 60 degrees west of NYC on Tuesday.

Read more

Update: Slight Risk of severe storms from SPC

The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York ,Connecticut, and the New York City Metro Area in a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. The “Slight Risk” category is triggered by probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point — and in this case the SPC indicates a 15%-30% chance of severe storms within 25 miles of any point in that area.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over Pennsylvania and New York later this afternoon before moving into Western New England and Southeast New York. The storms may then eventually drop south and east towards Northern NJ and New York City. However, confidence is higher in the potential for storms to the north of our area. Here, better shear and instability parameters are juxtaposed to support organized severe thunderstorm potential. One forecast model, run for the Storm Prediction Center, suggests the storms may move farther south — into Northern NJ and NYC ( see below ).

SPC-WRF model, forecasting strong thunderstorms impacting the NYC Area Wednesday evening.

SPC-WRF model, forecasting strong thunderstorms impacting the NYC Area Wednesday evening.

After a warm front passed the area this morning, southwesterly winds ushered in a much warmer and more humid airmass. So, the potential exists for the strong storms to move into the NYC Area later this evening despite the fact that the better support for severe weather remains to the north.

Stay tuned for updates on potential watches and warnings from the National Weather Service through the afternoon (this post will be updated).