Seasonal forecasting is one of the most misunderstood aspects of meteorology. Not only is it a difficult task for the meteorologists themselves, but it is often difficult for readers and public viewers to understand the nature of the forecast. The root of the problem lies in the fact that seasonal forecasting is based on many different methods — all of which have tremendous variability and low percentage verification. Seasonal forecasting begins with an analysis of current conditions and atmospheric circulations, similar to any daily forecast. Beyond this point, forecasters use variables such as sea surface temperature anomalies, analogs, and comparative methodology to compile a forecast.
Some forecasters have detailed the mentality very well when they have stated that long term forecasting is very much about “What can go wrong” as opposed to “How will the forecast be correct”. Our job as meteorologists is to detail the aspects that have formed the foundation for our forecast, express our concerns and confidence in all aspects, and deliver the ideas which we have formulated as a result of our research and work in attempting to understand the patterns evolution over the next several months.
We will begin by highlighting several variables which we have researched. Each variable will be listed with a conclusion and prediction on its state during the winter, as well as the methodology and reasoning behind that forecast.
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