Tropical Weather Dashboard
Jose: Tropical Storm Warning for Southeast New England…
Maria: Hurricane Warnings for Puerto Rico and the US & British Virgin Islands, parts of Leeward Islands..
Overview: Hurricane Jose will remain well offshore and likely transition into Nor’easter this week.But some rainbands with tropical force winds may still impact parts of Eastern Long Island & New England coastline by Tuesday and Wednesday. Some minor moderate coastal flooding is also possible during high tides. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is now become a major Category 4 hurricane and could become Category 5 hurricane by Tuesday. -Last Updated at 6:00pm EDT on 9/18/17 by MP
Detailed Analysis: New Updates for Jose & Maria in Progress
Graphical Outlooks & Forecasts
Tropical Weather Discussions
Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 The cloud pattern of Jose has not changed much during the day. The hurricane continues to lose some tropical characteristics, and it remains asymmetric with most of the convective bands located to the north of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 65 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate Jose this evening and will provide a better assessment of the strength and structure of the hurricane. Jose is expected to remain over the warm Gulf Stream waters for about another day, so even though the shear is high, the hurricane will likely maintain its intensity during that time. Shortly thereafter, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition, which is expected to be complete by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in good agreement with the consensus aids. The hurricane continues to wobble around, but the general motion is northward at 9 kt. The overall track forecast philosophy is unchanged. A continued northward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift to the south or southwest at the end of the forecast period. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the various consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 34.8N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 35.9N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 37.4N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 38.9N 70.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 39.9N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 40.0N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/1800Z 39.4N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1800Z 38.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and this featured has recently become better defined in visible and infrared satellite imagery. The aircraft data supported an intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that rapid intensification is continuing. Thus, the initial intensity is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt. After an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed a motion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motion may be even farther to the right. A weak subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestward for the next three days, with the center crossing the Leeward Islands near Dominica during the next few hours. This is expected to be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to near the Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near Puerto Rico around the 48 h point. Once north of Puerto Rico, the hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and north-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little to the south of the various consensus models. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. The intensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the guidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt in about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach category 5 status. Later in the forecast period, land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period. It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria, the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area near the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will not expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds could expand to an area larger than forecast. If radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available, Tropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect for many of these islands. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that island. 3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.1N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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