Two Week Warning
You know that tingly feeling you get when you’re about to start something really exciting? Like right before a big sports game, or directly before a surprise party, or when you see the waiter walking toward your table with food? Today is a little bit like that.
In all seriousness, the excitement is starting to build. We’re exactly two weeks away from the start of our storm chasing adventure, which will begin in Minneapolis, Minnesota on May 25th, 2018. We fly in to Minneapolis in the early morning directly out of Kennedy Airport in New York City. It’s going to be a really exciting day. I’ll be bringing along a super-awesome chase partner for this storm chasing trip (it will be her first). You’ll find out more about her later.
With the two week warning comes a lot of excitement and a lot of action. It’s time to start preparing for all of the essentials that are going to be necessary for our trip and begin to put some things into motion that had simply been discussed before. It’s starting to feel a little bit more “real” if you will.
Can you tell that i’m excited to spend a long period of time chasing tornadoes?
The first thing that we’ve gotten underway is the purchase of a vehicle for our time out there. This is a bit more complicated and honestly, something that every chaser should take the time to think about long and hard before booking a trip. We want to book something sturdy, but not a truck. We need it to be good on gas, but strong enough to withstand some tough conditions. We also need it to have some accessories to make our trip easier – which leads us into the next discussion: Technology.
Over the past few days, I have spent a lot of time organizing things that will need to be shipped to Minnesota – laptop mounts, power inverters and chargers, radio scanners, cell phone boosters and mobile hotspots. All essentials that will need to be customized in a car that is being rented. These are all in motion and coming together very nicely.
Finally, it’s almost time to book the camera which I am extremely stoked to be using for our trip – the Sony RX10 Mark IV. This camera comes with an absolute beast of a lens that makes it easy to capture all kinds of angles and compositions – plus the ability to record video in 4k. I gave it a test run in Colorado and came out with some amazing photos.
Taken with a Sony RX10 IV
That will leave us in a great spot. We’ll be in Minneapolis with a car, a camera, the technology and the safety measures to chase. So it will be a matter of getting the atmosphere to cooperate from there. Will it?
Forecast models over the past several days have trended very favorably in regards to the hemispheric pattern towards the end of the month of May. There had been plenty of mixed signals just a few weeks ago, but we are now at a juncture where it is appearing more likely than not that there will be plenty of activity when we arrive on May 25th and in the days that follow.
An equatorward shifting Pacific Jet is forecast by both the ECMWF EPS and GEFS beginning around May 15th. This almost immediately supports changes in the weather pattern, with a large ridge over the Intermountain West becoming replaced by a troughing anomaly. Severe weather threats are expected to unfold beginning around the weekend of May 18th.
With tropical forcing providing additional support as the MJO moves into Phase 2, it appears probable that troughiness will continue near the Four Corners through the end of the month. Additionally, the overall wave guide looks to support a relatively large Western Atlantic ridge, aiding in a favorable overall pattern for return flow of moisture.
GEFS showing the potential for a troughing anomaly in the Four Corners region with return flow into the Plains – a good overall look for severe weather potential.
The specifics, obviously, remain to be seen. There seems to be a decent signal on guidance at this time that there will be two periods of favorability – one near May 25th and another near June 2nd. This would fall into the seasonal “trend” of an “ebb and flow” type pattern and no real distinct periods of continuous activity.
Still, it’s an encouraging start. The pattern is changing and it looks likely to support severe weather activity – that isn’t saying all that much given the fact that we are approaching climatological peak for activity, but it still is nice to see. We’ll have to iron out the details in the days ahead. Things should start to pick up pretty quickly now as we approach 7 to 10 days out.
One last note – I’m really excited to have Gravel & Grace as an outlet for all of this. I’ll be working with some really great minds over the next few weeks and I couldn’t be more excited for where this is heading. I hope you enjoy following along as we embark on this adventure.