Entries by John Homenuk

Cool risks will return to Central US, September coming into view

Good afternoon! We hope we caught you in the middle of a great Thursday afternoon. To piggyback a bit on our overnight and early morning thoughts, today’s midday update will focus mostly on the evolving pattern across the Central and Eastern states over the next 5 weeks — much of which has come into better view over the past 12 to 24 hours. The weather pattern, largely, has been defined by an Eastern Pacific ridge and high latitude blocking anomaly over the past few weeks, which has led to cooler temperatures and troughing in the Central States and much of the AG Belt.

This pattern has lagged into this week, as a storm system developing over the Central Plains states again drags cold air into the Northern 1/3 of the USA and eventually the Ohio and Mississippi River Valley. Minneapolis, in fact, has seen temperatures below normal averages in 13 of the last 14 days! The well-established pattern is finally forecast to become more transient, as a ridge retrogrades from the Eastern Pacific westward into the Central Pacific.

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AM AG Update: Impacts of a retrograding Pacific pattern

Happy Monday, folks! We hope our morning update finds you well. We’re going to jump straight in to some developments which we communicated over the weekend, and take a bit of a deeper look at their evolution and impacts. About 5 days ago, we discussed at length the pattern which currently existed across the Northern Hemisphere — including why it had become so stagnant. We also discussed the pieces behind the potential for a change during the latter half of the month of August, namely the pattern in the Pacific Ocean. As we move towards the middle of the month,  medium range forecast ensembles are starting to pick up on these gradual changes as well.

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Mesoscale Update: Strong storms in the interior northeast

Good afternoon! As Saturday rolls on, thunderstorms have developed in earnest throughout the interior Northeast States. These storms have generally remained near or slightly below severe-limits, but a strengthening trend has been observed over the past 30 to 60 minutes. The storms have formed within a marginally favorable environment, but are expected to move into gradually more favorable conditions over the next hour.

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PM Update: Briefly unsettled weather continues in the Northeast

Good evening and Happy Friday! An active weather day continues across much of the Northeast States. Despite a lack of organized severe weather or widespread impactful hazardous conditions, scattered thunderstorm coverage throughout the Northeast part of the country has created issues, specifically in regards to air travel. Significant delays were reported this evening in many major Northeast US airports as a result of the showers and storms.

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