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Forecast Discussions
Rain Likely Today…Colder Weather Arriving This Weekend
Today will be a dreary day. This morning will start with some clouds, fog, and a few light showers around. Then periods of steadier rain will arrive with a cold front this afternoon and evening. Model guidance shows a strengthening southeasterly low-level jet between 40kt-50kts and high precipitable water values over 1.30″, indicating high atmospheric […]
The PDO, MJO and Their Potential Influence In This Upcoming El Nino Winter
When a forecaster makes a seasonal outlook or forecast, he/she must consider all possible climate drivers and variables with teleconnections. Previous articles such as Monitoring the Stratosphere and The Importance of High Latitude Blocking in Upcoming Winter discussed the variables that were considered for our winter forecast, and how much weight was put into each. Now it’s time […]
An Early Look at the Pattern for Thanksgiving Week
The days before Thanksgiving are some of the busiest travel days of the year, meaning that the weather has an even larger impact than usual. Accordingly, we have already been keeping an eye on model guidance for this period. While it’s still too far out to forecast with confidence, our November outlook did show some cooling to […]
Local Observations
