Entries by Miguel Pierre

High latitude blocking increasingly likely through November

Good afternoon! Autumn like weather is in place as we speak across much of the Northeastern United States, with relatively seasonable temperatures. Enjoy it while it lasts. It will feel much more like winter very soon, as an arctic blast is set to arrive from Friday into Saturday. Very quickly, temperatures will fall 15 to 25 degrees below normal for this time of year, with record low temperatures possible over reporting climatology sites in the Northeast states. While this intensity of cold air will be short lived, colder than normal air will remain persistent.

A vigorous polar disturbance inside a shortwave trough will be swinging through the Great Lakes and Northeast tonight and Friday. This feature will amplify into a small closed low over Quebec later on Friday Night. The result will be a frigid airmass from Northern Canada swinging southward with a vengeance and reaching the Northeast USA from Friday into Friday Night. This type of southward movement of polar/arctic air is unusual this early in the season.

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ENSO Update: Weak La Nina Likely for the Winter

Good afternoon! We continue to monitor developments with La Nina this weekend, as it will one important features will be considering in our monthly and winter forecasts. Sea-surface temperatures this past week, have cooled over more of ENSO regions in the Central and Eastern Pacific, as anticipated in our last major update. The thermocline (sea-surface temperature gradient) has been rising this week, with an easterly trade wind bust causing more upwelling cooler sub-surface waters into the Central Tropical Pacific. The latest 30-day moving SOI is now at +13.03. So La Nina conditions have been strengthening this week.

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MJO and Recurving Typhoon Leads to Volatile Pattern

Good evening, friends! Over the past few days we have discussed, at length, an upcoming wholesale pattern change across North America. As changes in the Pacific Ocean fold down into the United States, a large and stagnant ridge over the Eastern United States will gradually become replaced with a trough, arcing from the Central States to the East through days 5-10. This will result in colder than normal temperatures expanding eastward from the Central United States. The duration and exact intensity of this cooler air remains in question, but what exactly is causing it to occur in the first place?

As we have discussed before, the pattern change comes initially from the retrogression of synoptic features over the Western Hemisphere and North Pacific.  The polar vortex retrogrades out of Northern Canada and into the Bering Sea by early next week. That very same vortex phases with more energy over the North Pacific and results in a larger, deep trough positioned over the Aleutians. This pattern forces a ridge to build over the West Coast of the United States and Canada, and large mid-latitude trough to start digging into the Central and Eastern US during the middle of next week.

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Winds of change blowing as cooler risks set to return

Happy Monday! Much of the past several weeks have featured a similar synoptic weather headline across North America: Trough west, ridge east. This pattern had led to large scale above-normal temperature anomalies from the Plains eastward to the Mississippi River, exacerbated near the East Coast. But there are growing signs that this pattern will be […]