Forecast Dashboard – Page 47 – New York Metro Weather

Overview

Briefing

Hot and humid conditions will continue through Tuesday. Chances for showers and t-storms will increase as a cold front approaches on Wednesday. More comfortable warmth and humidity is expected late week.

Forecaster’s Discussion

Near Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 26th 2019 by MP

Near Term (through tonight)

High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies today. 850mb temperatures around 12-13 C with deep mixing and light northwest downslope winds will support high temperatures closer to normal-in the middle 80s throughout much of the region. Humidity will still be relatively low, which will make for another beautiful mid-summer day.

Tonight, will remain mostly clear with light winds. This will result in more radiation cooling. Low temperatures are likely to in the mid 60s many of suburbs and in upper 60s to near 70 degrees in NYC and urban areas. Some of the far northern Interior valleys will likely drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Short/Long Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Short/Long term (Friday through Wednesday)

A warming trend and increasing humidity is expected as move into Friday and the weekend, as upper-level ridging builds and a return southwest flow develops around high pressure off Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend above normal again with highs in the mid-upper 80s or lower 90s each day. Sea-breezes will keep shore areas a little cooler. A few weak passing mid-level shortwaves, thermal troughs with increasing instability could help trigger few isolated showers or t-storms over the Interior. But mainly tranquil weather is expected through the weekend.

A couple stronger disturbances moving along the northern periphery of the ridge, may increase convection chances during the early or middle of part next week. But very warm and humid conditions will likely remain with temperatures in upper 80s or lower 90s again.

Extended Term (8-14+ Days)

Last Updated: 10:00am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Extended Term (early August)

The pattern for the first couple of weeks of August will likely dominated by the Western Atlantic ridge with more surges of warmth and humidity for the Northeast US. This is supported by the lower AAM/MJO forcing progression through the Indian Ocean. Whether or not a more significant heat wave develops will depend on how much the EPO/NAO allows for the ridge to expand. A weakness in the ridge closer to the East Coast, may also support an active pattern with more convective threats.

In fact, the latest GEFS and EPS guidance indicates strong anomalous blocking ridge causing a heatwave in Europe will retrgrode back into Artic/NAO regions. This may result a period lower heights and somewhat cooler temperatures over the Northeast US, before the Western Atlantic ridge can flex back again.

Hello

Amplified pattern will eventually bring cool air, storm risks to East

October 12, 2018/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

The North Pacific Jet has been a real bear of a forecast over the past few weeks. Model guidance has struggled with tropical forcing and the effects of re-curving typhoons (just to name a few things), and the results haven’t been pretty – we have seen a few shots of colder air modeled in the […]

NYC Area Forecast: Autumn air arrives this weekend

October 12, 2018/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The remnants of Hurricane Michael brought plenty of rainfall to parts of the area overnight Thursday into Friday morning, with bands rotating onshore and producing localized flooding. This was especially true over parts of Southeastern New Jersey, where upwards of 4″ of rainfall was observed in some locations. The reality of the situation is that […]

NYC Area Forecast: Impacts from Michael today with rain, storms

October 11, 2018/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Michael will stream northward over the next several hours, and its interaction with a frontal boundary in the Northeast will prove sufficient to develop numerous showers and thunderstorms. A warm front will lift northward through the Mid-Atlantic later this morning, providing the first impetus for shower and thunderstorm development. Some […]