Forecast: Briefly cooler, cloudier ahead of approaching front

After a warm two day stretch during the middle of this week, southeast winds have returned this Thursday morning and will continue into early Friday. The result will be plenty of clouds and the potential for isolated showers and drizzle as cool marine air moves in off the still colder ocean waters. A cold front, which remains well to our west on Thursday afternoon over the western Ohio Valley, will eventually approach by late Friday night. For the remainder of Thursday, however, damp and cloudy weather will be the main theme. Despite warm temperatures aloft, the aforementioned developments will keep temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. The higher temperatures should generally be confined to Central and Southern New Jersey.

NAM model showing forecast radar and cloud cover on Thursday afternoon. Southeast winds will usher in plenty of clouds and drizzle, keeping temperatures in the upper 50's to lower 60's.

NAM model showing forecast radar and cloud cover on Thursday afternoon. Southeast winds will usher in plenty of clouds and drizzle, keeping temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.

By late Thursday night, forecast models are consistent in developing additional clouds and fog. The fog should stick around into Friday morning, but will eventually lift as winds shift to southerly and things begin to really warm up. After some clearing Friday afternoon, the southerly winds will usher in warm air once again — and temperatures are expected to climb into the 70’s. If the sun sticks around, some areas in Central New Jersey could reach near 80 degrees. The cold front will approach late Friday with showers and thunderstorms and a period of heavy rain.

Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy with a chance of drizzle and showers. Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Southeast winds around 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with fog developing. Low temperatures in the mid 50’s. Southeast winds around 10 miles per hour.

Friday: Mostly cloudy early with fog. Clearing by afternoon with highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. South winds around 15 to 20 miles per hour.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms late.

Warmer air, some clouds on the way for midweek

The typical ups and downs of springtime weather have arrived, despite a very slow start with colder than normal temperatures through much of March and the first few days of April. After a big warmup last week, cooler air took over this past weekend with a bout of cold rain and cloudy conditions. However, warmer air is on the way once again as a storm system moves through the Central United States. Tuesday will mark the first “warmer” day of the few, but this one will be slightly more tempered compared to last week with a frontal boundary hanging around the area.

NAM model showing forecast high temperatures throughout the area on Tuesday afternoon. Notice the warmer temperatures, in the 70's over New Jersey. The southeast winds off the water keep temperatures in the 60's along the shore.

NAM model showing forecast high temperatures throughout the area on Tuesday afternoon. Notice the warmer temperatures, in the 70’s over New Jersey. The southeast winds off the water keep temperatures in the 60’s along the shore.

In addition, a more southeasterly component to the wind will ensure that coastal areas remain at least somewhat cool. Clouds and some fog are expected in the morning on most days this week with the potential for showers as the front nears on both Wednesday and Thursday. In general, however, temperatures will rise into the upper 60’s to lower 70’s especially over New Jersey and working towards New York City. Areas east of New York City and along the shoreline will have more trouble reaching those numbers.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy and fog early, lasting into afternoon along the shore. Southeast winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low in the 50’s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. A slight chance of showers. East-southeast winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

RAP model showing forecast high temperatures on Thursday.

Forecast: Backdoor cold front will sweep away warmth

For the amount of talk regarding the impressive nature of the warmth surge over the past few days, it probably is unfair that the backdoor cold front approaching the area late this week has been doing so quietly. After all, it is hard to ignore such a feature which will interrupt a stretch of beautiful weather that our area experienced during the first half of this week. Temperatures in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s were widespread with some locations topping out in the upper 80’s and nearer to 90 (especially Wednesday in Southern New Jersey). The warmth was broken up late Wednesday evening, however, by several rounds of showers and thunderstorms some of which were strong/severe over Northwest NJ.

RAP model showing forecast high temperatures on Thursday.

RAP model showing forecast high temperatures on Thursday. Notice the backdoor cold front settled to the south of our area over Southwest New Jersey and the Northern Mid Atlantic, with the core of the warm air now relegated to areas near Washington D.C and points south.

By Thursday, a backdoor cold front will have slid past the area from the north, leaving our area with east winds off the cool ocean waters. Clouds are expected on Thursday as well, and when coupled with the east winds will produce conditions noticeably cooler than the past several days. Highs in the 50’s to near 60 are generally expected, so the day won’t be a total loss. But it will serve as a reminder that summer warmth isn’t here to stay — yet.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers or drizzle. Highs in the upper 50’s. East winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation 50%

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Lows in the mid 40’s. East winds around 15 to 20 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation 50%.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 50’s. East winds around 20 miles per hour, gusting higher. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Forecast: Spring warmth continues into Tuesday

Warm and pleasant spring weather has settled into the forecast area early this week, marked by a Monday which featured temperatures rising into the mid 70’s for the first time this year. Tuesday will feature much of the same, with temperatures running a few degrees warmer than they did on Monday afternoon. Despite the potential for some clouds early, winds are expected to shift to west-northwesterly by afternoon. The warm air aloft will have plenty of influence as well, with 850mb temperatures running over 10 C throughout much of the area. A bit of a gradient is expected throughout the area, with highs in the lower 70’s to the north of the city, and the upper 70’s to near 80 near the city and south of it over Central New Jersey.

NAM Model showing forecast highs throughout the area on Tuesday.

NAM Model showing forecast highs throughout the area on Tuesday. Notice the upper 60’s to lower 70’s north of the city, and upper 70’s to lower 80’s south of the city.

The seabreeze should be generally limited to the immediate coast on Tuesday, as well, with the offshore flow from the west-northwest. This will limit the progress of any marine layer as it attempts to move inland. The seabreeze had a much easier time moving inland on Monday with southeast winds off the water. Tuesday will mark the middle of the warmup for the area — with warmer temperatures expected once again on Wednesday. We hope you’re enjoying it as much as we are! (A backdoor front looms for Thursday with cloudy and drizzly conditions).

Today (Tuesday): Partly cloudy and warm, with highs in the upper 70’s to near 80. West-northwest winds around 10 to 15 miles per hour throughout the day, becoming noticeable and breezy in the early afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms. Lows in the middle to upper 50’s. West winds turning southwesterly around 10 miles per hour.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and warm with a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80’s. Southwest winds around 10 to 15 miles per hour.