As part of our winter forecasting feature this autumn, we’re releasing a few posts with information and tounge-in-cheek opinions about winter and meteorology. The first in the set comes this afternoon, where our forecasters sat down to compile a list of the 5 biggest forecast model myths as we head into winter. You can check them out below, to get a quick primer on what to expect over the next several months.
The combination of a weak coastal system, meandering off the Mid Atlantic coast, and multiple mid level disturbances moving through the Northeast US will result in generally unpleasant weather from Wednesday through the end of the week. The coastal system is weak but brings moisture and an onshore flow, as the decaying mid level vorticity slowly retrogrades towards the coast on Wednesday. Low clouds and drizzle are possible, despite the lack of any steady rain, especially near the coasts.
Mid level disturbances shifting northeast from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through the Great Lakes and Northeast will bring more unsettled weather through the end of the week — signaling the beginnings of a more active pattern. The weekend is expected to feature improving conditions once the frontal system eventually moves off the coast.
High resolution models showing increasing Precipitable Water values by later Wednesday evening.
Widespread reports of a fireball, seen streaking through the sky last night around 830pm, continue to funnel in this afternoon. The American Meteor Society says they have recieved 71 official sighting reports of the meteor. Based on those details, they have concluded that the meteor entered the skies over New Jersey at 8:25pm, moving north-northwestward and eventually landing somewhere in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. The data remains preliminary and the investigation into the event continues. The heat map, pictured below, shows the frequency of reported meteor sightings throughout the Northeast US.
Heat map of reported meteor sightings from October 14, 2013. Courtesy American Meteor Society.
Despite the fact that pleasant weather has essentially dominated late summer and Autumn thus far, the pattern of late has trended a bit more unsettled. This is fairly typical for this time of year, as the first signs of wavelength changes are beginning to be seen in the atmospheric pattern and jet stream. However, a more dramatic pattern change is being forecast by most models in the medium range — with noticeable wave amplification throughout the Northern Hemisphere. In the short term, unsettled weather will begin to impact the area as early as Wednesday with a weak system meandering offshore beginning to back towards a coast slightly. Another frontal system back to our west will eventually approach and cross the area around mid-week, bringing in the first of several shots of cooler air.
NAM model showing multiple disturbances in the mid levels (500mb) of the atmosphere later this week.