The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the area from New York City westward in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, warm and humid air is advecting northward into the region. Increasing dew points and surface heating will lead to the development of moderate instability throughout the area by the afternoon hours. Accordingly, the approaching front will aid in the development of storms from Eastern Pennsylvania into Western New Jersey.
These storms will move toward a narrow axis of instability over New Jersey reaching toward New York City this afternoon. Narrow, only because east of New York City a stout marine layer will remain in place. This will keep storms elevated and weaker — temperatures there will be cooler as well with less instability. Nevertheless, the storms will march eastward through New Jersey toward NYC right around the PM Commute. The main threats with any storms will be gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain.
This post will be updated throughout the day with the latest information including watches and warnings.
12:00pm: The latest SPC Outlook shows the location of the Slight Risk for severe storms today. A Slight Risk means that scattered severe weather is possible, but the storms aren’t expected to be widespread.