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Heavy rain, thunderstorms transition into crisp weekend

Southwesterly winds have ushered in a warmer, more humid airmass this Friday morning. Temperatures are running in the mid 60’s throughout the area with low clouds and fog in the valleys and even some of the higher elevations of Northern NJ and Southeast NY. The southwesterly flow will continue to build into Friday afternoon, ahead of an approaching cold front. The warmer, more humid air will lead to increasing atmospheric instability by later this afternoon.

This instability, expanding from Southeast Pennsylvania into New York, will briefly align with favorable atmospheric shear parameters as a cold front approaches from the west this afternoon. In this area, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are likely moving from west to east through New Jersey, Southeast New York, Connecticut and potentially the NYC Metro Area.

Storm Prediction Center outlook for Friday, October 9th, showing a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms.

Storm Prediction Center outlook for Friday, October 9th, showing a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms.

While storms are not expected to be widespread by any means, the heavier showers and thunderstorms along the cold front will prove to produce enough disruptive weather. In the stronger thunderstorms, a few strong wind gusts could produce isolated severe weather/damage reports. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a “Marginal Risk” for severe thunderstorms, but mention a potential categorical risk area upgrade if storms become more organized.

After the cold front passes this evening, a much cooler and more stable airmass will be ushered in to the area. In fact, it will be one the most crisp airmasses we have seen since last Spring. Temperatures in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will cool down quite dramatically. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will stay in the 60’s, with a west/northwesterly breeze.

Forecast low temperatures on Sunday Morning -- in the 30's and 40's.

Forecast low temperatures on Sunday Morning — in the 30’s and 40’s.

Low temperatures from Saturday Night into Sunday morning will be some of the coolest in a while. They will fall into the 40’s — even in the NYC Metro — throughout the area, and the upper 30’s across parts of the interior in Northwest NJ and Southeast NY. Much of New England will see low temperatures in the 30’s as well.

One thing is for sure — it will be a crisp, cool Autumn weekend, and there will be plenty of sun. Fall foliage will be increasing quite a bit as well. We hope you can enjoy it!

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