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Premium: Warmer than normal temperatures by late May

The news many have awaited for several weeks is finally here: We are forecasting the return of above average temperatures by the end of May. For the past few weeks, the hemispheric pattern has been stuck in a bit of a rut. High latitude blocking has maintained its control over the pattern, on both the Pacific and the Atlantic sides, forcing the development of anomalous cutoff lows and troughs into the Northern 1/3 of the United States. Colder than normal air with unsettled weather has been the dominant sensible weather in our area.

The transition out of this pattern is already underway. While high latitude blocking on the Pacific side (a -EPO) will again flex its muscles late this week, it will be more of a parting shot than anything else. An upper level low will form, as a response to the -EPO ridging, and push into the Great Lakes. But its presence will be mainly progressive, as a front swings through our area and the upper level trough elongates and moves to our northeast.

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