Happy Tuesday! We’re going to dive straight into the latest model guidance and see how it compares with previous ideas. Fortunately, there has not been much of a change in last night and this morning’s guidance — a good signal that the retrogression ideas discussed in yesterday’s AG update are in fact holding true. You always want to see the signal persist and move up in time on model guidance when trying to verify real changes taking place, and that is indeed what we are seeing.
For a frame of reference, we are going to use this morning’s GEFS model. The conditions right now show a pretty amplified pattern in the US with some deep troughs and a large blocking pattern in Canada. This has helped to keep a good chunk of the Eastern two thirds of the US below average in temperatures, as well as active in terms of precipitation.
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