Entries by Doug Simonian

First Accumulating Snow of the Season Becoming Likely for the East Coast

Good afternoon! In the world of weather, there has been a lot of model mayhem regarding a big shift in the data further northwest with a coastal storm, which is leading to the idea of accumulating snow across much of the Eastern US on Saturday. We believe that these ideas have a lot of merit, and in this article we are going to explain why, as well as overview some of our expectations.

In the macro sense, it’s not a complicated setup. We have a large ridge in the West, and a corresponding deep trough in the East, we have disturbances sliding down the ridge and entering the trough, and we also have a relatively stalled frontal boundary off the coast, providing a strong temperature gradient for a storm to ride, while also providing enough ridging in the Atlantic to keep the storm from sliding out to sea.

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Long Range Update: Cold Intensifies, Active Pattern to Follow

 

Good evening! As has been heavily advertised for a while, a pattern change to cold is now imminent, and should be able to sustain itself for a couple of weeks thanks to retrograding and deepening troughing near the Aleutians. This leads to continued downstream impressive responses near the West Coast, with plenty of latent heat release and poleward ridging. This will dislodge a couple of shots of Arctic air into the Eastern two thirds of the US — into a lot of the major markets.

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Extremely Amplified Pattern Will Set the Stage for Arctic Cold

 

Good evening! The changes to the pattern have been discussed for a while, but now that the model data has finally caught on, things are starting to truly get interesting and we can entertain possibilities.

An initially very zonal pattern will quickly become very amplified thanks to changes with a train of waves in the Pacific and a traffic jam of waves building in the Atlantic. Eventually this forces an amplified ridge in the Pacific to build towards the Arctic and dislodge plenty of cold into the Eastern half of the US, as the corresponding deep trough will have nowhere to go thanks to the aforementioned traffic in the Atlantic.

The video below has all of the details on the coming cold, its severity, and potential duration. It also discusses potential winter storm threats that may arise in the pattern.

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Afternoon Video Update: NAO Blocking Signal Grows

 

Good afternoon! The well-advertised signal of high-latitude blocking developing in the 2nd half of November continues to grow. It all starts with an amplification and slowing down of a Pacific wave train, which helps to pump latent heat towards the Poles, further leading to ridging extending towards the Poles. Subsequently, this changes the background state of the Arctic to the point where North Atlantic blocking becomes more feasible, and thus the entire Arctic is able to see blocking. This has big implications as we head into late November and December. 

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