Entries by Doug Simonian

La Nina is in the Atmosphere, but Changes are Possible

After some big warmth, we finally saw some Autumn chill arrive over the past couple of days, which signifies the change of seasons. We are now approaching crunch time when it comes to compiling a winter forecast. In our Winter Forecast Webinar, one of the main topics discussed was the evolution of the La Nina and the effects it […]

Hurricane Maria’s Track May Depend on Jose

 

In what seems to be about day seven hundred in an endless cycle of Tropical news, we have plenty more to talk about. Hurricane Maria underwent rapid intensification last night, strengthening from a Category 1 to a Category 3 storm. It developed a very tight core with a rapid increase of lightning around the center — a classic foreboding of rapid intensification. This intensification has continued throughout the day, as it has now become a Category 4 hurricane with 130mph winds. This was evident because a classic pinhole eye opened up, reminiscent of some of the strongest hurricanes, such as Hurricane Gilbert. It is looking like Puerto Rico will take a direct hit from Maria, as perhaps a Category 4 or even 5 hurricane. Afterward, there is a lot of spread in potential outcomes, though the general pattern at large does signal a landfall somewhere along the East Coast. But a big variable will be how the remnants of Jose behave, something that will be very hard to forecast.

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Heavy Rain and Storms Possible Tuesday through Thursday

 

Happy Labor Day! We are finally enjoying some warm, sunny, summery conditions after a few days of chilly and unsettled weather had dominated the region. This is because a large, full-latitude, but short wavelength trough has moved into the Central US, which is a direct downstream response to the amplified wavebreaking that occurred from a recurving typhoon in the Western Pacific. This amplified pattern has also helped/reinforced a very strong, blocking ridge in the Atlantic, and it’s this trough’s interaction with the blocking Atlantic ridge that could lead to a few rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms, though not necessarily a washout. Also, our area initially being downstream of this deep trough has led to strong southwesterly flow out ahead of it, and thus a large warming trend in the Eastern Seaboard.

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Harvey Video Analysis: Significant Flooding in Texas Likely

 

Good afternoon! As we speak, Harvey has regenerated into a Tropical Depression and will soon become a Tropical Storm. It will continue to slowly move northwest over the next couple of days around the periphery of a ridge in the Gulf of Mexico. There are still a lot of uncertainties regarding its exact track and strength, but confidence is increasing in it strengthening to a strong Tropical Storm to a borderline weak Hurricane before making landfall somewhere in Southern Texas. But the big story will likely not be the winds from Harvey, but more likely the potential for significant flooding. The steering flow in the atmosphere is very weak, which will allow Harvey to essentially stall in Texas for multiple days, providing a strong fetch of tropical moisture directly into the Texas coast. All of the details can be found in our latest video:

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