Good evening, friends! Over the past few days we have discussed, at length, an upcoming wholesale pattern change across North America. As changes in the Pacific Ocean fold down into the United States, a large and stagnant ridge over the Eastern United States will gradually become replaced with a trough, arcing from the Central States to the East through days 5-10. This will result in colder than normal temperatures expanding eastward from the Central United States. The duration and exact intensity of this cooler air remains in question, but what exactly is causing it to occur in the first place?
As we have discussed before, the pattern change comes initially from the retrogression of synoptic features over the Western Hemisphere and North Pacific. The polar vortex retrogrades out of Northern Canada and into the Bering Sea by early next week. That very same vortex phases with more energy over the North Pacific and results in a larger, deep trough positioned over the Aleutians. This pattern forces a ridge to build over the West Coast of the United States and Canada, and large mid-latitude trough to start digging into the Central and Eastern US during the middle of next week.
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