ENSO Update: Weak La Nina Likely for the Winter

Good afternoon! We continue to monitor developments with La Nina this weekend, as it will one important features will be considering in our monthly and winter forecasts. Sea-surface temperatures this past week, have cooled over more of ENSO regions in the Central and Eastern Pacific, as anticipated in our last major update. The thermocline (sea-surface temperature gradient) has been rising this week, with an easterly trade wind bust causing more upwelling cooler sub-surface waters into the Central Tropical Pacific. The latest 30-day moving SOI is now at +13.03. So La Nina conditions have been strengthening this week.

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