John Homenuk

Meteorological summer will end warmer, wetter than normal in NYC

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New York City will finish meteorological summer with above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation when the unofficial season ends on August 31st. Temperatures from June 1st through August 27th averaged 1 to 3 degrees above normal throughout the New York City Metro, while precipitation ended 3 to 6 inches above average. Official numbers will be released by the National Weather Service next week.

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John Homenuk

Some storms possible on Wednesday, tropical system offshore

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The National Hurricane Center designated Tropical Depression Six on Monday, and it is expected to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm by the morning hours of Tuesday. The system will pass well east of the area this week, but higher swells and surf are possible on area beaches.

Calm and pleasant weather is generally expected to continue today, with high temperatures in the 70’s and low humidity. Change is in the air, however, with a frontal system approaching from the west. By Wednesday, the opportunity for showers and storms will increase again.

The best chance will likely come later Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, with a front approaching the area. This is a transient, relatively weak front and it won’t have much instability to work with. In other words, don’t expect any intense thunderstorms. Instead, a few scattered storms are likely – especially over the Interior and in New England.

Here are the latest highlights and links:

  • Calm weather will continue today, with low humidity and comfortable temperatures, albeit several degrees warmer than this weekend.
  • A tropical system, perhaps Tropical Storm Erin by this morning, will meander well offshore this week. This storm may produced enhanced swells, surf, and rip current risk at area beaches later this week.
  • Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday evening. Scattered in nature and generally non-severe, these shouldn’t be a big trouble maker.
  • The weather improves again this weekend and into the early part of next week, but trends a bit warmer (seasonable is the best way to put it).
  • Eyes will continue to be on Tropical Storm Dorian, which may or may not make a move at the Bahamas later this week and weekend. Here’s our latest briefing on that system.
John Homenuk

Dorian tracking northwest, future remains uncertain

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Tropical Storm Dorian continued her northwestward trek today, marching toward the Lesser Antilles in the Tropical Atlantic. The system has maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour, a solid Tropical Storm. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm to reach Hurricane status by 8pm on Tuesday.

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John Homenuk

Weekly Briefing: Pleasant weather until midweek

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Pleasant and calm weather will continue until at least midweek in NYC and surrounding areas. High pressure has built in and established itself in New England. It will continue to funnel seasonably cool, lower humidity air into the region through Tuesday. Forecast model guidance shows nearly zero chance of rain through that time.

The weather pattern will turn active once again as we move past midweek. A few storm systems will emerge from the Central United States, moving toward the area by Wednesday. The chance for showers and storms will increase by that time. A generally “cool” and active pattern should then persist thereafter.

One interesting thing to note in the medium range forecast is the absence of any heat signal on weather models. Confidence is very high that we’ve made it through the worst of the heat and humidity for this year.

Here are the latest highlights as we move into the new work week:

  • Dry, calm and cool over the next few days. Low humidity, too, which continues to feel great.
  • The weather turns unsettled again by midweek, but we aren’t seeing signals for anything anomalous at this point. Fairly typical chances for showers and storms.
  • This active and generally cooler pattern will continue. There are no signals for big heat or big storms on the horizon.
  • Tropical Storm Dorian continues tracking very slowly northwestward in the Atlantic. The system will approach Puerto Rico by midweek, and is then forecast to weak to a Tropical Depression. Impacts to the US Mainland appear unlikely at this time.
  • We’ll be continuing to upgrade our website through this evening. Expect some downtime – just shoot us a DM on Twitter or an email if you need anything.
  • You’ve probably read about folks who were struck by lightning this weekend on a PGA golf course. This is yet another reminder of how important it is to head indoors any time a thunderstorm is near you – and to never take shelter under a tree.

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday evening!