John Homenuk

Severe storm leaves path of damage from PA through Long Island

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A complex of severe thunderstorms tracked from Northeast Pennsylvania into New York City on Thursday evening, producing widespread wind damage. The same complex of storms survived all the way to Montauk, almost 200 miles in total length, while still producing widespread damaging winds.

The storms formed in Northeast Pennsylvania during the middle afternoon hours on Wednesday, and quickly began shifting east/southeast toward New Jersey. The atmosphere ahead of the storms was moderately unstable. More notable was the presence of sufficient wind shear – this wind shear helps to keep strong thunderstorms organized and can also transport strong winds down to the surface.

By the early to mid evening hours, the very same storm complex was now pushing through New Jersey. Wind damage reports became more frequent, and as the storm moved through the NYC Metro Area it produced 58mph wind gusts in Tribeca and the Financial District.

The same complex of storms then tracked eastward through Queens and Brooklyn, while maintaining strength. While instability was lower in these areas, ample wind shear and a strengthening low level jet (winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere) helped it maintain intensity.


Over Long Island, the combination of the mentioned instability and strengthening low level jet stream helped the storm to maintain intensity, and also aided in downward transport of winds. This resulted in widespread wind damage reports across Nassau and Suffolk counties throughout the evening.

The storm caused a wall collapse and widespread tree damage in the area from East Farmingdale through Ronkonkoma including Islip and Brentwood. As of this morning, over 20,000 residents remained without power – likely from trees falling on power lines.

While not unheard of, a complex of storms moving from Northeast PA through the NYC Metro and all the way to Montauk is rare. The swath of wind damage reports with this single storm is quite impressive – arguably the most impressive of the summer so far.

Technical breakdown of atmospheric conditions

This storm existed in an environment that was, at best, moderately favorable for severe weather. Instability was present but not extreme (around 1000j/kg of surface based cape). Wind shear was impressive (40 knots of mid level shear for storm organization). Low level wind fields were not overly favorable during the morning but became more favorable by evening. In the end, the storm took full advantage of its environment, riding along a gradient of favorable conditions well into the early evening.

Much of our region was placed within the right entrance region of an impressive jet stream on Thursday, which helped to enhance vertical motion during the evening. But more notable was likely the gradient of instability and the development of a stronger low level jet. This helped to enhance low level winds significantly and likely contributed to the uptick in wind damage reports on Long Island.

The low level jet is known to kick up after sunset (nocturnal low level jet), and in the Midwest and Plains states can help fuel evening outbreaks of tornadoes. In our area, the increasing low level jet helped foster an enhanced threat for wind damage – essentially giving the storm some extra “juice” to continue its trek eastward all the way to Montauk.

John Homenuk

Showers linger today before much improved weather arrives

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A front will meander near the area today, leading to showery and rainy conditions through the afternoon. As the day goes on, the front will shift southward and by this evening the weather will begin to improve markedly. Dew points will decrease significantly, with much more comfortable air settling in.

Most guidance is in good agreement, though, that showers will be a mainstay in today’s forecast. The front simply isn’t in a hurry to move past our area. It’ll shift south of NYC after 5pm, with the last of the showers out of the metro by 7. As usual, it will take a bit longer to move through parts of Southern New Jersey.

By Saturday, dew points will have dropped into the 50’s throughout the area. This is a huge change compared to what we have been experiencing over the past several days. In fact, by Saturday evening, some areas may see dew points in the 40’s – we haven’t seen those since Spring! The pleasant and refreshing weather is expected to continue through the weekend. Here are your highlights:

  • Showers are likely to persist today near a front that is not in any hurry to move past our area.
  • These will gradually begin clearing the area from north to south later today.
  • Most likely time for improving weather in NYC is 5-7 pm, with much improved weather likely tonight.
  • A major drop in dew points is expected by Saturday, with high temperatures in the 70’s and dew points only in the 50’s.
  • The improved weather will persist through the weekend and into early next week, but a few disturbances may return to the forecast with the chance for showers by early next week once again.
John Homenuk

End is finally nigh for humid hellscape in NYC

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Millions of NYC Metro Area residents will finally not instantly begin sweating when they walk outside on Saturday morning.

A cold front shifting southward through New England will bring much cooler, less humid, very Canadian air with it. Dew points are forecast to drop from the 70’s today (that is oppressive) into the 40’s by Saturday (that is not oppressive). Northerly winds will also keep a refreshing breeze blowing through the weekend.

We’ll have to get through some more humidity and a few more storms first. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through tonight, with temperatures near 90° F and dew points in the 70’s leading to uncomfortable and oppressive conditions. Another round of storms is also expected this evening as a disturbance swings through.

Here are the highlights over the next few days:

  • Humid and hot again today. A Heat Advisory is still in effect until 8:00pm
  • Storms are possible again, most likely after 7pm and into parts of the overnight hours
  • A few storms could be strong or severe, and although widespread severe weather isn’t expected, any storm could produce strong winds and lightning
  • A dramatic change in the weather is likely from Friday into Saturday as dew points fall almost 30° F
  • Low humidity and sunshine is expected to continue through the weekend
John Homenuk

More heat, more humidity and more storms today

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Update 2:00pm: The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the NYC Metro and surrounding areas until 9:00pm.

Have you noticed a trend? The NWS has issued a Heat Advisory for the NYC Metro Area through Thursday, with temperatures in the 90’s and high humidity values. The SPC has also placed the NYC Metro Area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Heat, humidity and storms have been mainstays in our areas weather over the last month – and we’ll get more of it today. Showers and thunderstorms may develop as early as 12:00pm, with another round expected later this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds can be expected in any storm. There’s a non-zero chance of a tornado in the Hudson Valley and parts of New England.

The Heat Advisory ( is issued when the combination of temperature and dew point is expected to make conditions oppressive) continues until Thursday evening, when a cold front is finally expected to move through. In fact, the drop in dew points late this week will be the most dramatic of the summer. By this weekend, high temperatures will only reach the 70’s and humidity will be way down.

I think we can all use some of that.

Here’s the lowdown on what to expect over the next few days:

  • Heat and humidity today – again. The worst of that will come during the early afternoon hours.
  • Showers and storms are expected, and they could form any time after noon. A second round is expected late this afternoon.
  • SPC has placed our area in a Slight Risk for severe weather, with the main threat being strong wind gusts. Hail is also possible, and a tornado or two can’t be ruled out in the interior Hudson Valley and New England.
  • The heat continues on Thursday, but a front will gradually approach the area. There’s a chance of some more storms as well.
  • Finally, and we mean finally, the dew point will drop big time this weekend. Calm weather, beautiful skies and comfortable temperatures are expected.