NYC Forecast: Pleasant Labor Day, unsettled by midweek

Pleasant conditions will remain in place for the next few days, including Labor Day, with high pressure in control. The weather will trend gradually warmer and more humid through midweek. Unsettled conditions will then return during the latter half of the week, and perhaps continuing through the weekend.

QuickCast

This afternoon: Calm and pleasant with lots of sunshine. Low dew points will keep conditions feeling fresh. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70’s and lower 80’s – right near normal for this time of year.

Tonight: Mostly clear and calm conditions will continue. Low temperatures will fall into the middle 60’s.

Labor Day: Warm and pleasant once again, with humidity only gradually increasing. High temperatures will reach the lower 80’s with a light southerly wind.

Discussion: Unsettled weather to return midweek

The week will begin with pleasant and low humidity weather, with high temperatures right near seasonable averages. By the middle of the week, however, temperatures will warm and humidity will rise with a notably more uncomfortable feel to the airmass. A large ridge will expand towards the area from the Western Atlantic Ocean, allowing more humid marine air to infiltrate the region.

A more humid airmass will push towards the area by the middle of the upcoming week.

By Wednesday, forecast model guidance strongly suggests that showers and unsettled conditions will return to the forecast. Lower pressures associated with a weak disturbance offshore will move towards the coast, and a frontal system will gradually approach the area from the west. The combination of increased moisture and lift from these two systems could lead to showery, unsettled conditions for at least a few days.

Depending on how quickly this front clears the area, the unsettled weather could persist into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will average near normal during this time, but the real story will be the increased humidity and opportunity for rainfall. High pressure doesn’t look to return in earnest until about a week from now – late next weekend.

Fall Foliage 2020: What to expect in the Northeast and New England

Fall foliage is undoubtedly one of natures greatest displays. Each Autumn, the landscape is flooded with gorgeous color as trees prepare themselves for winter. In the Northeast states, the colors are a spectacle that is unanimously appreciated and respected. Hundreds of thousands of visitors flock to view the bursting colors in New England each year, and 2020 will be no different.

The weather, both during the growing season and fall foliage season itself, has a tremendous effect on fall foliage. The conditions which the trees and leaves endure during the Summer can have lasting effects on how the leaves appear in the Autumn. Similarly, conditions during the Autumn months can greatly impact how the trees behave.

Why do Autumn leaves change color in the first place?

The science behind trees and their leaves is fascinating, and at its most compelling during the Autumn months. One of the central processes at work is photosynthesis. Many trees and plants perform this process to generate food and energy necessary for cellular growth.

The process of photosynthesis requires a few key components: Energy from the sun, carbon dioxide, and water. Most notably for our consideration, the process takes place in many cells which contain chlorophyll, which aids the plant in producing glucose (a.k.a plant food). The chlorophyll cells are responsible for the leafs green appearance.

But chlorophyll naturally breaks down, and as Summer turns to Autumn the temperature and water balance changes. As days become shorter and the sunlight less intense, the production of chlorophyll eventually slows to a halt. Other compounds which always exist in the leaf – namely Carotenoids and Anthocyanins – begin to become dominant.

The Chemistry of Autumn Leaves. Image via Compound Interest.

These compounds are responsible for the vivid orange, red and yellow colors that burst to life in the Autumn months. In fact, each individual compound is responsible for a certain color! Flavonols are known for their yellow color and Beta-Carotene helps produce oranges, for example.

Eventually, as the Autumn months wear on, perennial plants and trees begin to drop their leaves. Other trees (pines, spruces, and firs) are evergreens throughout the Winter season. It is an incredible process to consider – by dropping leaves, trees are very literally preparing themselves for Winter. The trees close off the veins providing nutrients to the leaf, and eventually the individual leaves fall to the ground.

Once on the ground, leaves break down into the earth around the trees, providing nutrients to the ground and soil. These nutrients stay near the tree through the Winter months and well into the Spring and next growing season. The process continues year after year.

What should we expect from fall foliage in 2020?

The summer of 2020 was warm and relatively dry throughout New England. Precipitation numbers have crept upwards over the past few weeks, but 3-month departures are still solidly below normal. Drier weather can lead to faster changing and somewhat less vibrant autumn colors.

With that being said, the weather pattern is expected to remain warm and active over the next few weeks. This should lead to some recovery of dry 3-month averages throughout New England, and fall foliage may also trend more vibrant as a result.

Fall foliage typically peaks during the last week of September and first week of October in New England, spreading from north to south. Peak foliage begins earlier in places like Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont and gradually moves southward into Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey.

It remains to be seen exactly how the colors will emerge, but at this moment there is no reason to believe colors will be much earlier or much later than average. We’ll have further updates as we head through the next few weeks!

You can check out state-by-state current conditions by visiting this website.