NYC Forecast: Rain likely Friday as coastal storm develops

Briefing: Pleasant weather will continue for the next two days with high pressure in control. Another coastal storm will develop this weekend, with a strong low pressure developing off the coast of New England. Periods of heavy rainfall will occur in the NYC Area from Friday into Saturday morning. Clearing, but cooler weather is then likely this weekend.

Quick Forecast

Tonight: Mostly clear and calm. Lows in the middle 50’s with a light southwesterly wind.

Thursday (10/15): Mostly sunny and warmer, with highs in the mid 70’s. Light southerly winds.

Friday (10/16): Increasing clouds with showers likely late. Rain becoming heavy at times during the evening hours. Light southwest winds.

Discussion: Coastal storm develops this weekend with rain likely on Friday

The weather is expected to remain calm and pleasant for the next few days, with high pressure in control. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures and calm conditions on Thursday. Temperatures will average several degrees above average on Thursday, with highs in the middle 70’s.

By Friday, the atmospheric pattern will amplify across the United States. This can be traced back to the presence of anomalous high latitude blocking in the Arctic. A deep trough and associated disturbance will move into the Ohio Valley and then amplify off the East Coast. Meanwhile, a frontal system will setup near the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states.

As the low pressure system begins to develop, the jet stream in the upper levels of the atmosphere will become increasingly amplified. This will allow for increased lift for precipitation, and rain is expected to develop on Friday afternoon and evening. Conditions will go downhill Friday night with continued showers and dreary weather.

One bit of good news will be the progressive nature of the storm. A coastal storm system is expected to develop near New England on Saturday, but it will be quick moving and will shift into Eastern Canada in short order. This will allow drier air to shift back into the region on Saturday, with improving conditions for the weekend.

Temperatures this weekend will average cooler than normal, with westerly winds in the wake of the developing storm system to our north and east. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday are only expected to reach the lower 60’s.