Mailbag: The vibes are good

As a period of gorgeous weather continues through this weekend, we’re excited to introduce our mailbag post series. We opened the floor for questions on social media and received a ton of cool responses.

We expect to run a mailbag post once per week, although we may skip it during periods of highly active or unsettled weather. Check out some of the questions below and be sure to reply on social media next week when the mailbag opens up again!

@MrPoeSLaw (Twitter): What’s the most reliable means of determining what kind of winter we’ll have (how cold, how wet)?

Great question, especially now that we’re in peak Farmers Almanac hype season. Seasonal forecasting is a highly difficult, complex and constantly evolving field of meteorology. The process begins by analyzing current and past conditions (from Summer into Fall) across the entire hemisphere. Then, forecasters will often analyze that data against past data to create “analogs” or years that featured similar conditions. Using the past few months of conditions, the pattern right now, analog years from the past, and a variety of forecast model techniques, we can generate a “picture” of what to expect in the months ahead. The catch? One small change, tweak, or difference can undo the entire thing. As you can imagine, when it comes to seasonal forecasting – trial, error, and patience are three commonly used words.

To answer your question more directly, using a detail-oriented seasonal forecasting process is the best way to determine what might lie ahead when it comes to temperature and precipitation. It’s still far too early to take a truly scientific stab at what may come our way this Winter. Most of the publications you see putting out forecasts at this range are truly throwing darts with a blindfold on. We’ll choose to be patient and take a better, more well-rounded stab at it in about a months time.

@JoJoInNewYork (Twitter): Why are forecasts so often wrong? Or does it just seem that way, because I expect rain when there isn’t any or vice versa?

This is a tough one, and a hard one for lots of forecasters to admit. The truth of the matter is – we’re wrong a lot because we are trying to predict the future, which simply is not an easy thing to do. Even with the help of our understanding of physics, and tons of computer power, predicting the future is tough. People generally expect weather forecasts to be 100% accurate, and that simply isn’t something that is routinely attainable.

What is attainable, however, is better communication of weather forecasts and the risks or uncertainties that surround them. Our goal is always to provide the forecast in a digestible, understandable format. That means that you will understand it better and we will have a better chance of communicating to you what we hoped to all along. Meteorology, in general, has a communication problem (see: NYC’s response to Ida). It’s our opinion that more direct, easy to understand content will go a long way in solving that.

@Weather_Lover (Twitter): Have we seen a shift of tornado alley from the Midwest to the Northeast? Or do the tornadoes that spawned from Tropical systems that passed through [not] count?

Well, for one thing, tornado alley is definitely not shifting in to the Northeast. Thankfully. 2021 has, however, been an abnormally active year in terms of severe weather – specifically in our area, and even more specifically in New Jersey. The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued 40 tornado warnings this year so far, which is already double the previous high number of warnings for any given year (20, set in 2011).

In addition, local storm reports in New Jersey have been extraordinarily high, indicative of the active weather we have had – including but not limited to severe wind gusts, hail, tornadoes, and flooding. With that being said, there are no indications that tornado alley is making its way into the NYC Metro Area. Such a thing simply isn’t possible given our location and geography.

There is, however, a growing pile of research suggesting that tornado alley may be shifting away from the Plains States and towards Dixie Alley in the Southeast US. One of the most notable papers comes from well known storm chaser and meteorologist Victor Gensini – Spatial trends in U.S. tornado frequency, a highly recommended read.

@OedipusRexRyan (Twitter): Is it just me or do both spring and fall “start” later than they used to? Seems like it takes longer to warmup in April and that October and even early November are milder

This is a cool question. We decided that the best way to approach this was with hard statistics, so we plotted temperature data depicting the start dates and length of both Autumn and Spring in NYC through 2020.

Trends are minimal, but there are some to observe. Data goes back a long time, but the length of what is technically defined as Spring does seem to be increasing. The start date of Autumn seems to be trending later, while the season itself is also lasting a shorter period of time.

These statistics will vary by location, but it does give us a peak into some very minor trends that are at least worth noting over such a long period of time.

@dennerdenner (Twitter): When does the commute get less sweaty?

It goes directly from sweaty to bitter cold in about one month.

@PamelaRockmore (Twitter): When does soup season start

Trick question, it already started.

That’s all for us this week. We’ll see you guys for next weeks mailbag. Have a wonderful Friday!