NOAA Forecasting Above-Average Hurricane Season in 2022

NOAA released their 2022 Hurricane Season Forecast today, calling for an above-average season in terms of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean. The forecast for a more active season was largely expected based on the continuation of weak La Niña conditions as well as the sea surface temperature configuration across the hemisphere this Spring.

The forecast calls for a 65% chance of an above average season. NOAA is expecting 14-21 named tropical systems, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes. All of those metrics are above average.

The currently existing hemispheric weather pattern, sea-surface temperature anomalies, and ENSO conditions are generally agreed upon by long range forecasters as being supportive of above-normal tropical activity overall. The UK Met Office also issued their 2022 Hurricane Season Forecast this week, calling for similarly above-average conditions.

The last two hurricane seasons have featured above average tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, and the 2022 season is not expected to be any different. Most notably, the NYC Metro was impacted by remnants of tropical systems twice in 2021, most memorably the remnants of Hurricane Ida which eventually brought severe weather and historic flooding to the NYC Metro on September 1st.

Hurricane season in the Atlantic technically starts on June 1st, but the National Hurricane Center has begun issuing outlooks a few weeks earlier in May during recent seasons to account for an uptick in late-Spring tropical activity. You can access their latest outlooks here.