Weekend Forecast: Rain through tonight, improving this weekend

Briefing: Steady rainfall will persist for the next few hours, as a low pressure system develops off the New England coast. Periods of rain will continue into Saturday morning. Thereafter, improving conditions are likely for the remainder of the weekend.

NYC QuickCast

Tonight: Periods of rain continuing with dreary and cool conditions. Temperatures in the 50’s throughout the area.

Saturday: Rain in the morning hours, tapering off quickly with improving conditions throughout the day. Cool and blustery with highs only in the lower 60’s.

Sunday: Pleasant, cool and blustery with plenty of sunshine. Highs in the lower to middle 60’s.

Discussion: Frontal system brings rain today, better weekend with cool weather

Regional analysis this afternoon showed moisture pooling along a frontal boundary which is situated along the East Coast, conveniently right near the NYC Metro Area. A low pressure system is gradually developing off the coast and is expected to deepen near New England later tonight and Saturday. In the meantime, however, rainfall is expected to continue.

This afternoon and evening will likely be defined by dreary and gross conditions as a result. Short term models suggest the potential for an additional half-inch of rainfall as this system evolves. Once the deep low pressure develops in New England, drier air will be gradually pulled in from the west. This will shut down the rainfall and reduce moisture, with cooler and drier conditions taking over by Saturday morning.

The weekend looks likely to provide classic Autumn weather. Temperatures will top out in the lower 60’s, with a bit of a blustery westerly wind. There will be plenty of sunshine, with temperatures only a few degrees below normals for this time of year.

The pattern into next week becomes a bit more complicated. We’re closely watching the evolution of high latitude blocking, as well as keeping an eye on the tropics. Some guidance is suggesting the potential for the organization of a tropical system in the Southwest Atlantic as well as the Caribbean. Both of those areas will be monitored closely this weekend, though it’s far too early to determine what (if any) impacts those systems will have on our area’s weather.