Yup, it’s going to rain in NYC again this weekend
The beat goes on. Despite the gorgeous weather on tap for the next few days, forecast model guidance is strongly hinting at the potential for another coastal storm this weekend. The potential exists for periods of rain, wind and localized flooding as the storm system evolves from Saturday into Sunday.
The majority of this week will be characterized by comfortable temperatures and pleasant conditions. High pressure has nudged into the area today, with an upper level low spinning to our north and keeping a flow of crisp, comfortable air angled towards the region. Consider it our prize for the unsettled and damp weekend that we endured – but a warning sign for what’s still yet to come.
The upper level low is spinning to our north in Eastern Canada as a result of high latitude blocking. These ridges of high pressure “block” the typical flow of atmospheric disturbances and can lead to amplified patterns and strong storm systems. Think of the blocks as atmospheric traffic jams. The slower things go in the atmosphere, the more likely you are to amplify the flow and allow disturbances to interact, phase and strengthen.
This is exactly what models are hinting at this weekend. The large blocking ridge over Central Canada slows down the flow in the atmosphere and allows a disturbance to amplify over the Eastern United States as it traverses underneath the block itself (see illustration). Anomalous moisture surges up the coast towards the area and an organized area of low pressure forms off the coast.
This could result in periods of rain on Saturday (probably later in the day) as the storm moves towards the area, especially as the coastal low gets ramped up. Depending on how organized the coastal storm gets, we could even see the onshore flow pick up as well with coastal flooding and gusty winds. Regardless, unsettled weather and rain is likely from late Saturday into Sunday.
The intensity of the storm will dictate how long it lingers. A stronger, slower storm will likely keep rain chances in the forecast for most of Sunday, while a faster and weaker storm could be out of here in time to salvage the second half of the day. Those complexities will likely take at least a few days to resolve.
Ensemble guidance (the mean of 50+ different weather models) is currently suggesting the potential for 1-2″ of rainfall, but the outside/higher end of the envelope indicates the potential for totals closer 3″ (see above). Needless to say, it looks like we’ve got another heavy rain maker on our hands.
In the coming days, we’ll be working to pin down the details and intricacies of the storm and the resulting impacts in our area. For now, we can confidently say that another unsettled weekend is on the way. Enjoy the beautiful weather we’ve got for now!
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