Entries by Doug Simonian

Explaining the forecast bust

Although our forecasts were lower in snow totals for the NYC area than some other outlets at the time they were issued, we still feel like we could have done a better job. Apologies go out for a missed forecast. But, as scientists, we always try to do our best to analyze what went wrong, […]

Live Blog: Steady snow stays well south of NYC

1:45am Update: Steadier and heavier snow is beginning to develop near Philly and Northern Delaware. It is heading to South Jersey as we speak. Over the next couple of hours, any initial rain or mix in Burlington County and Ocean County and southward will quickly turn over to snow, and accmulate about 1″ per hour — […]

Why is the storm shifting south?

A few days ago, most models had the area getting hit with 10-15″ of snow, which generated a lot of hype. Even up until yesterday, some of the models were still showing that same solution. However, models were beginning to trend towards a change in the orientation of the Polar Vortex, which started to sound […]