Forecast Dashboard – Page 103 – New York Metro Weather

Overview

Briefing

Hot and humid conditions will continue through Tuesday. Chances for showers and t-storms will increase as a cold front approaches on Wednesday. More comfortable warmth and humidity is expected late week.

Forecaster’s Discussion

Near Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 26th 2019 by MP

Near Term (through tonight)

High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies today. 850mb temperatures around 12-13 C with deep mixing and light northwest downslope winds will support high temperatures closer to normal-in the middle 80s throughout much of the region. Humidity will still be relatively low, which will make for another beautiful mid-summer day.

Tonight, will remain mostly clear with light winds. This will result in more radiation cooling. Low temperatures are likely to in the mid 60s many of suburbs and in upper 60s to near 70 degrees in NYC and urban areas. Some of the far northern Interior valleys will likely drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Short/Long Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Short/Long term (Friday through Wednesday)

A warming trend and increasing humidity is expected as move into Friday and the weekend, as upper-level ridging builds and a return southwest flow develops around high pressure off Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend above normal again with highs in the mid-upper 80s or lower 90s each day. Sea-breezes will keep shore areas a little cooler. A few weak passing mid-level shortwaves, thermal troughs with increasing instability could help trigger few isolated showers or t-storms over the Interior. But mainly tranquil weather is expected through the weekend.

A couple stronger disturbances moving along the northern periphery of the ridge, may increase convection chances during the early or middle of part next week. But very warm and humid conditions will likely remain with temperatures in upper 80s or lower 90s again.

Extended Term (8-14+ Days)

Last Updated: 10:00am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Extended Term (early August)

The pattern for the first couple of weeks of August will likely dominated by the Western Atlantic ridge with more surges of warmth and humidity for the Northeast US. This is supported by the lower AAM/MJO forcing progression through the Indian Ocean. Whether or not a more significant heat wave develops will depend on how much the EPO/NAO allows for the ridge to expand. A weakness in the ridge closer to the East Coast, may also support an active pattern with more convective threats.

In fact, the latest GEFS and EPS guidance indicates strong anomalous blocking ridge causing a heatwave in Europe will retrgrode back into Artic/NAO regions. This may result a period lower heights and somewhat cooler temperatures over the Northeast US, before the Western Atlantic ridge can flex back again.

Hello

Zonal Pattern Gives Way to More Extremes Across the Country

December 18, 2017/1 Comment/by Steven Copertino

Good Evening! A weak area of mid level energy moved quickly through the Northeast last evening and into the early morning hours today, which had just enough kick left to it to bring some isolated and relatively light areas of precipitation. Depending on your location, this precipitation varied from plain rain, freezing rain, or even some light […]

Wintry Mix for Interior Northeast Tuesday Before Arctic Blast Arrives, Late Week Storm Threat?

December 11, 2017/by Miguel Pierre

Good evening! Chilly and dry weather will continue for rest of the evening hours. But clouds will thicken and increase overnight, as the next storm system approaches. Mid-level warm advection ahead of warm front will start to cause Some light precipitation to break out well after midnight. Temperatures in the lower and mid-levels will be […]

First Widespread Snowfall of the Season Likely Saturday!

December 8, 2017/1 Comment/by Steven Copertino

Good Evening Folks! Well the close-call we warned you about on Monday has trended much closer to the coast over the past 48 hours, and looks to deliver the first light to moderate snowfall for many locations long the I-95 corridor! The setup for this storm has been a cold one, as a weak area […]