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Wintry Mix for Interior Northeast Tuesday Before Arctic Blast Arrives, Late Week Storm Threat?

Good evening! Chilly and dry weather will continue for rest of the evening hours. But clouds will thicken and increase overnight, as the next storm system approaches. Mid-level warm advection ahead of warm front will start to cause Some light precipitation to break out well after midnight. Temperatures in the lower and mid-levels will be warmer, especially over New York City and coastal areas. So mainly rain is expected, although some snowflakes and ice pellets at the onset, can still occur. Otherwise, mainly some rain showers are expected through tomorrow morning, as temperatures rise into mid-upper 40s.

Over the Interior, especially higher elevations of Northwest New Jersey, the Hudson Valley and Northern CT more light snow, sleet and freezing rain is possible. This could leave coating to an 1″ or 2”, before perhaps change to rain during the midday hours. Temperatures will like rise only into the upper 30s to lower 40s in these areas during the afternoon. But should lead some snow and ice melting on on roadways and other paved surfaces. All precipitation will taper off during the early afternoon hours, as best dynamics begin to move northward into Northern New England.

A strong cold front will come through during evening hours. Some snow showers and even few isolated snow squall are possible.Then arctic air arrives during the Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will likely drop into middle 20s on overnight Tuesday. This may result in some residual water refreezing or black ice on area roadways by early Wednesday morning. It will be mostly sunny on Wednesday, as high pressure will be over Northeast. But it very cold and blustery with high temperatures only in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A tight pressure gradient will result in winds frequent gusting to up to near 40mph. It could feel quite harsh with windchills possibility in the teens or lower 20s much of the day over the Northeast.

3km NAM model shows snow for parts of the Interior Northeast Tuesday morning

3km NAM model shows snow for parts of the Interior Northeast Tuesday morning

Then late in the week, we will be watching a couple of storm systems to impact the region with possibly some snowfall. First system is a clipper low that will be passing over the Northern Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday. A band of light snow is likely to the north, and could accumulation a couple of inches. But it is difficult tell right now where this band will exactly set up. Some models show stronger confluence underneath upper-level low over Southeast Canada shear this system as moves eastward towards the coast. However with arctic airmass in place, temperatures will support snow to accumulate quickly on all surfaces during the day on Thursday.

Then another area of low pressure will be developing along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, as northern and southern stream shortwave energy try to phase inside a larger amplifying upper-level trough. This low will have more Atlantic moisture available for larger east coast storm.  But latest models suggest the pattern these pieces will phase too late and thus the storm will remain weaker and track further offshore, with just some light snow grazing more coastal sections of the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Temperatures will still be very cold on Friday in the lower to middle 30s.  We will continue to watch both of these system later in the week.

The GFS showing shortwave energy phasing inside upper-level trough, resulting in low developing near the coast.. However more pacific shortwve energy crashing into the ridge over Western US, keeps this system more progressive and farther ofshore.

The 12z GFS today showing shortwave energy phasing inside upper-level trough, resulting in low developing near the coast.. However more pacific shortwve energy crashing into the ridge over Western US, keeps this system more progressive and farther ofshore.

Temperatures begin to moderate over the weekend and into early next week. On Saturday temperatures will still be several degrees below normal with highs only in upper 30s. But temperatures may rise closer to normal in the lower to middle 40s with more southwest flow by Sunday. At this time, it doesn’t appear any significant storm system will be impact the Northeast. So it should decent weekend for holiday shopping and sightseeing.

Further down the road, more moderation is possible next week as the high-latitude blocking pattern relaxes and the southeast ridge builds. Then a building poleward -EPO ridge in North Pacific is likely to cause arctic cold air to reloads again much of the Central and Eastern United States closer to Christmas. This pattern may result in baroclinic gradient with number of overrunning-type storm events. Stay tuned for further public updates!. Sign up for our Enterprise Forecasts for more frequent or tailored updates, technical analysis, videos and long range discussion. Also join us at 33andrain forums for free discussion on everything weather-related.

Have a great evening!

-Miguel Pierre

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