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Forecast Discussions
The return of cold and unreliability of forecast models
So far this month, Central Park is running two degrees below average as a result of an impressive North Pacific wave-breaking event that shifted the cold from Siberia into North America and the US. The cold has since generally retreated northward as a result of an expanding Pacific Jet that collapsed the ridge in Alaska […]
How long will Winter’s hiatus last? Look to the Pacific
Before the warmth has even arrived, signals of a changing weather pattern have begun once again. This is, honestly, par for the course in the hemispheric pattern that we have been locked into over the past several months. The progressive nature of the pattern itself has not allowed any particular regime to become stagnant. In […]
Forecast Soundings and Radiational Cooling
850mb temperatures are only around average or slightly below average. There is a large Southeast ridge with positive 500mb height anomalies. The previously large North Pacific block that generated our cold and snow last week has been replaced by negative height anomalies, cutting off the US from any cold airmass. So why is it so […]
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