Posts

John Homenuk

(Premium) Dynamic cooling may bring snow to some on Saturday

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While the calendar has pointed to Spring for several days, the weather pattern has not cooperated. This weekend will be no exception. Forecast models have come into better agreement over the past few days regarding the eventual development of a low pressure system off the Mid Atlantic coast, which will form as a result of a powerful mid level atmospheric disturbance dropping southward from Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast.

A low pressure system is likely to develop from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and off the coast of New Jersey. Precipitation is likely to develop on the northern end of the storm system, as moisture pushes northward from the low pressure area. This will allow for bands of precipitation to develop towards our area, likely falling as rain. The antecedent airmass is quite warm, and likely supports rain over any frozen precipitation, with melting of snowflakes occurring in the lower levels of the atmosphere. However, there is one main caveat in the setup: The potential for intense banding and dynamic cooling, producing heavy snow over some areas.

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John Homenuk

Friday overview: No signs of spring, other than baseball

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Cold air has returned to the area this morning, which you’ve probably already noticed. This airmass will continue pushing into the area over the next several hours as west-northwesterly winds usher in the drier and colder airmass. A few scattered showers are possible today, but should remain generally un-impactful. The main story over the next day or two will be the potential for snow (yes, you read that correctly) on Saturday with a system developing off the coast of New Jersey.

Models are in agreement that a strong shortwave and atmospheric disturbance will drop southeastward from Canada into the Great Lakes and eventually underneath the Mid Atlantic states on Saturday. This is a pattern that is much more typical in January of February — not in April. Nevertheless, the storm system is well signaled on all models. The question, over the next several hours, will be pinning down when and where heavy precipitation will occur. Essentially, while most areas will experience rain with this storm, heavier precipitation rates can allow for “dynamic cooling” in the atmosphere, allowing precipitation in heavier bands to fall as snow.

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John Homenuk

Thursday Overview: Warmth will be fleeting

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Warmer air has infiltrated the region today, and will remain in the area through the afternoon hours. A storm system to our west is ushering in warmer air via southerly winds, and increasing moisture with higher dew points is notable as well. All of this is occurring ahead of a cold front, which will approach the area later on this afternoon and evening.

The frontal boundary will become the focal point for the development of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms, some of which may produce gusty winds. These storms will move east/northeast of the area, with another round of showers expected tonight before the system clears out by Friday. The latest and greatest weather information is available below:

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John Homenuk

Wednesday Overview: Unsettled, then cold again

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Freeze Warnings have been issued on two consecutive nights, both Monday and Tuesday, as temperatures fell into the upper 20’s and lower 30’s throughout the area. A warming trend is underway today, with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 40’s during the afternoon hours. The news isn’t all good, however, as this warming trend is the first sign of unsettled weather which will approach the area on Thursday.

This storm system will bring periods of rain with embedded thunderstorms to the area on Thursday, before cold air follows the storm system into the weekend. The latest and greatest information is all included below:

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