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John Homenuk

Three weeks from perihelion, ISON still puzzling

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With perihelion fast approaching, Comet ISON is brightening steadily as it makes its first and only trip towards the inner solar system. The comet, once dubbed “Comet of the Century” by amateur astronomers after it was discovered at an alarmingly bright magnitude over a year ago, has fallen short of expectations since then. But studies by various scientists have only left confusing results and differing opinions. Some say the comet is on its way to disintegration, others are expecting an outburst of brightness within the next two weeks. ISON, however, will do what it wants — as it continues its trek towards the sun, and then outward into space once again.

Comet ISON, imaged November 3rd 2013 by Rolando Ligustri.

Comet ISON, imaged November 3rd 2013 by Rolando Ligustri.

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John Homenuk

Update: Freeze possible in area suburbs this week

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Wednesday AM Update: A weak coastal storm passing offshore, on a frontal boundary which crossed the area last night, is helping to develop some showers along the coast of New Jersey and along the shores of Long Island. The system will move quickly seaward today, owing to a fast and progressive pattern aloft. Temperatures this morning, away from the coast, fell into the 30s and 40s. Highs will reach only the mid 50s.

It is once the storm system passes, that west-northwesterly winds will begin in earnest — and they will usher in the coldest air of the year to date. Low temperatures on Wednesday Night into Thursday morning may fall into the lower 30s across the interior and 40s even in the city and urban areas. This would likely suffice for the first freeze of the year for many interior locations. But more notably in terms of sensible weather, high temperatures will only reach the mid 50s each day later this week, with a blustery wind expected. It will certainly feel more like autumn than it has at any point so far this year.

The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for Sussex County in NW NJ from 2:00 to 9:00am Thursday morning. Frost Advisories also in effect for Somerset, Morris, Hunterdon, Passaic, Bergen (NJ) Rockland, Putnam (NY) and Fairfield, New Haven (CT).

NAM model showing cold temperatures at 850mb moving into much of the Northern and Eastern US by Thursday.

NAM model showing cold temperatures at 850mb moving into much of the Northern and Eastern US by Thursday.

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John Homenuk

Comet ISON, expected to thrill, may be dying

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What was once heralded as the potential “Comet of the Century” may be an equally large disappointment. Although previous reports of the comets demise may have been significantly exaggerated, new information reveals that not only is the comet underwhelming as it races towards the sun — it is also smaller than expected, and tracking in a very dangerous area for comets that wish to survive.

The comet recently passed near Mars, where NASA utilized several imaging tools to view it. It was this imaging, coupled with thousands of others which have been taken over the last several months, which revealed that Comet ISON may not be what it was initially perceived to be. The comet, which was discovered over a year ago and began brightening ahead of schedule, would have eventually reached a magnitude of -17 if it had continued to brighten at such a rate. But, over the last 4-6 months, the comets brightening has “stalled”. And this is bad, bad news for those who are hoping for a bright comet this autumn and winter.

Comet ISON as observed by the Hubble Space Telescop, near Jupiter, in April of 2013.

Comet ISON as observed by the Hubble Space Telescope near Jupiter, in April of 2013.

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