Posts

John Homenuk

PM Update: Freeze Warnings expand through NJ, NY

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The growing season has been ending rather progressively throughout the forecast area over the last several days. The colder than normal airmass has been enough to end the growing season officially across much of Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York and interior Connecticut. Tonight, the growing season looks to come to a close across much of the Central New Jersey Pine Barrens. Accordingly, the National Weather Service has issued Freeze Warnings for Middlesex, Western Monmouth, Mercer, Salem, Ocean, Cumberland, Atlantic, and Southeastern Burlington County — which are valid from 3:00 – 9:00 am Saturday. Freeze Watches are in effect for parts of Southeast New York and Southern Connecticut.

With temperatures expected to fall into the lower 30’s for the third straight evening and overnight period, Saturday will mark a continuation of a chilly and dry airmass. The dry airmass is becoming more notable as we approach the final week of October. New York City’s Central Park, for one example, has recorded only 0.30″ of rainfall for the month. The average to date for October is around 3.00″ — and the departure is enough to put New York City in a D-0 drought stage. The drought breaker may not come until next week, when a storm system moves through he Great Lakes and brings a cold front through the area.

NAM model, forecasting low temperatures in the lower 30's throughout much of the area early Saturday morning.

NAM model, forecasting low temperatures in the lower 30’s throughout much of the area early Saturday morning.

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John Homenuk

Brisk, but sunny end to the week

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Friday morning was the coldest of the Autumn thus far, with temperatures falling into the 20s and 30s throughout much of the interior. Even urban locations fell into the upper 30s, owing to a very cold airmass aloft and excellent radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds. The growing season officially ended across much of the area suburbs. Friday will remain feeling chillier than much of this Autumn season has, with high temperatures topping out in the middle 50s and an occasional westerly wind gust.

The plus side of the cooler airmass settled into the area will undoubtedly be the presence of abundant sunshine. Dry air remains in place — as has been the case this entire month. In fact, October 2013 is shaping up to make a run for the top 5 driest Octobers on record in New York City. The pattern, not surprisingly, looks dry through the early to middle part of next week at the very earliest. This weekend will be pleasant, albeit a bit chilly, similarly to Thursday and Friday.

Observations and radar in the Northeast early Friday morning (WeatherNut, Twitter).

Observations and radar in the Northeast early Friday morning (WeatherNut, Twitter).

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John Homenuk

Update: Freeze possible in area suburbs this week

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Wednesday AM Update: A weak coastal storm passing offshore, on a frontal boundary which crossed the area last night, is helping to develop some showers along the coast of New Jersey and along the shores of Long Island. The system will move quickly seaward today, owing to a fast and progressive pattern aloft. Temperatures this morning, away from the coast, fell into the 30s and 40s. Highs will reach only the mid 50s.

It is once the storm system passes, that west-northwesterly winds will begin in earnest — and they will usher in the coldest air of the year to date. Low temperatures on Wednesday Night into Thursday morning may fall into the lower 30s across the interior and 40s even in the city and urban areas. This would likely suffice for the first freeze of the year for many interior locations. But more notably in terms of sensible weather, high temperatures will only reach the mid 50s each day later this week, with a blustery wind expected. It will certainly feel more like autumn than it has at any point so far this year.

The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for Sussex County in NW NJ from 2:00 to 9:00am Thursday morning. Frost Advisories also in effect for Somerset, Morris, Hunterdon, Passaic, Bergen (NJ) Rockland, Putnam (NY) and Fairfield, New Haven (CT).

NAM model showing cold temperatures at 850mb moving into much of the Northern and Eastern US by Thursday.

NAM model showing cold temperatures at 850mb moving into much of the Northern and Eastern US by Thursday.

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John Homenuk

Comet ISON, expected to thrill, may be dying

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What was once heralded as the potential “Comet of the Century” may be an equally large disappointment. Although previous reports of the comets demise may have been significantly exaggerated, new information reveals that not only is the comet underwhelming as it races towards the sun — it is also smaller than expected, and tracking in a very dangerous area for comets that wish to survive.

The comet recently passed near Mars, where NASA utilized several imaging tools to view it. It was this imaging, coupled with thousands of others which have been taken over the last several months, which revealed that Comet ISON may not be what it was initially perceived to be. The comet, which was discovered over a year ago and began brightening ahead of schedule, would have eventually reached a magnitude of -17 if it had continued to brighten at such a rate. But, over the last 4-6 months, the comets brightening has “stalled”. And this is bad, bad news for those who are hoping for a bright comet this autumn and winter.

Comet ISON as observed by the Hubble Space Telescop, near Jupiter, in April of 2013.

Comet ISON as observed by the Hubble Space Telescope near Jupiter, in April of 2013.

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