January 2014 Archives - Page 3 of 5 - New York Metro Weather

Week begins with transient weather

January 12, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

It’s almost as if “roller coaster” has become an insufficient way to describe the pattern changes that our area has observed over the past several weeks. This past 5-7 day period was no different, as we transitioned from the Polar Vortex with sub-zero wind chills to a strong southerly flow and temperatures in the 60’s. After a cold frontal passage on Saturday evening, however, things have settled down a bit. Monday will end up relatively benign with temperatures slightly above average — and minimal precipitation.

The changes begin by late Monday, however, as increasingly thick clouds will begin to stream into the area from the southwest. A mid level disturbance approaching the area from the Mississippi Valley will be moving quickly off to the northeast, and minimal amplification is expected with no significant low pressure system. Nevertheless, unsettled weather with clouds and showers will grab the reigns of the forecast from Monday Night into Tuesday. Above normal temperatures will eventually be shunted east of the area once again as more wintry air moves in behind the system by midweek.

NAM model showing the development of widespread showers and clouds throughout the area late Monday Night into Tuesday.

Cooler, drier weather behind cold front

January 11, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Warm, humid air with showers and thunderstorms were the main characteristics of the airmass on Saturday — but a distinct cold front moved through the area later on Saturday evening and the airmass has changed dramatically since then. Winds shifted from southerly to west-northwesterly by late Saturday evening into Sunday morning, and temperatures in the mid levels will drop even more considerably Sunday morning. Although overnight temperatures won’ t be frigid (especially in comparison to what we were dealing with 5 days ago), highs on Sunday will only reach into the mid 40’s, considerably cooler than Saturday.

Fair weather will be the main weather story through early week, despite the potential for a few showers on Monday. Sunday looks quiet, with around average temperatures and a westerly breeze. With no precipitation or hazards expected, it will be a sufficient close to a weekend which had only featured unsettled and dreary conditions to this point.

NAM model forecasting high temperatures in the mid 40’s on Sunday afternoon.

Ice Jam along Delaware River raises major flood concerns

January 8, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Observations from this afternoon confirmed a major ice jam along the Delaware River near Trenton, and concern is rising for flooding potential along and near the river and its banks as the ice melts. Water levels have risen over 7 feet since last night. Latest reports suggest initial flooding occurred this afternoon near Market Street and Route 29. The National Weather Service has issued Flash Flood Warnings along the Delaware River from Trenton southward to Philadelphia for the potential of river flooding. The warnings continue through the morning hours on Thursday January 9th.

An ice jam occurs when pieces of floating ice, carried with the stream’s current, accumulate at an obstruction to the streams flow. The ice cams can develop near river bends, banks, mouths, or even points where the slope of the river decreases. The water held back can rise rapidly and cause significant flooding. Moreoever, if the obstruction breaks suddenly, flash flooding can rapidly occur downstream. This is the concern of forecasters this evening.

Ice jam on the Delaware River near Trenton as photographed on January 8, 2014.

Slow thaw will lead to warm weekend

January 8, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

There is much still to be said and analyzed about the actual impacts of the polar vortex’s pass through our area early this week, but for now – the main story will become its exit and the ensuing warm up. High temperatures on Wednesday have already rebounded several degrees, and less aggressive wind gusts have allowed wind chills to warm up as well. Don’t get us wrong — the airmass remains downright frigid — but the record breaking cold is moving out of the picture. The polar vortex is already retreating well to our north and will continue to do so through Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere will respond, and warm, as the week comes to a close. Forecast models are in good agreement that surface temperatures will, as well. Highs should slowly warm into the 30’s by the end of the week. The pattern, then, will begin to change. The first sign will be a weak storm system which will slingshot towards our area from the Mississippi Valley on Friday, and may provide a period of light snow. Minimal accumulations are expected. But by this weekend, a stronger storm system will be organizing over the Central United States and the southerly flow ahead of it will begin pumping warmer air into our area.

GIF image animation showing rising temperatures at the 850mb level on Wednesday.

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