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Thursday Overview: Unsettled start, nicer finish

The long stretch of sunshine and pleasant weather has ended! Well, sort of. A disturbance passing by this morning will bring periods of rain to the area, especially areas south and west of New York City. While clouds and showers will stick around for parts of the morning, clearing is expected as the day progresses.

Forecast models show the cloud deck meandering near the city itself, with partly to mostly cloudy conditions over Long Island and Connecticut. Meanwhile, much of Central and Southern NJ will battle showers until the late morning or afternoon hours. Once this disturbances slides seaward, however, clearing is expected throughout the area.

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Localized severe thunderstorm event possible Sunday

A complex weather system will shift toward the area from late Saturday into Sunday, with tropical moisture surging northward as it moves into parts of the Northeast United States. The main surface low pressure area will track into Southeast Canada, while a secondary low pressure area will dip southward into New York State and New England. This will help draw in more southerly winds with moist, unstable air making its way toward the area as Sunday goes on.

At the surface, a warm front will move northward from the Mid Atlantic states towards Central New Jersey by Sunday afternoon. As it does so initially, showers with embedded thunder will likely shift northeastward through the area. Occasionally torrential downpours are anticipated as it does so. The main story, however, will come during the afternoon as the warm front sets up shop near Central New Jersey on a west to east axis.

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