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John Homenuk

PM Forecast: Period of wintry weather through Tuesday AM

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Snow was falling early Monday evening throughout most of the area, and was expected to continue for a few hours. Precipitation will change over to rain with time and continue into Tuesday morning.

Snow was falling early Monday evening throughout most of the area, and was expected to continue for a few hours. Precipitation will change over to rain with time and continue into Tuesday morning.

A storm system tracking to our north and west will redevelop off the New Jersey coast and south of Long Island tonight, bringing steady precipitation to the area overnight into Tuesday morning. Warm air advection (increasing presence of warm

NYMetroweather snowfall forecast through Tuesday at 12pm.

NYMetroweather snowfall forecast through Tuesday at 12pm.

air in the atmosphere) will begin in the evening, changing precipitation from snow to sleet and rain from southwest to northeast with time. However, a period of snow and sleet is likely even near the coast. Across the interior, several hours of snow and sleet are expected to bring moderate accumulations. Travel could become difficult overnight tonight, especially across the elevated interior areas. Eventually, precipitation is expected to change to all rain throughout the area by Tuesday morning before ending. Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3″ on cold surfaces are expected in Northeast NJ, NYC, and Long Island. Mainly wet roads are expected in the city. Across the interior, 3-6″ of snow/sleet is possible before the changeover to rain.

Although we opted not to issue a Storm Alert Brief due to the short-fused nature of the travel difficulties, our storm total snowfall forecast is available…attached to this post. The official 3 day forecast is also included below. After the storm system on Tuesday, attention will turn to a potential winter storm next weekend which has become a feature on almost all medium range forecast model guidance. Stay tuned.

Tonight: Periods of snow and sleet, changing to rain. Low near near 32, colder inland. East winds 10 to 20 miles per hour, gusting near 30 miles per hour.

Tuesday: Rain likely in the morning, then clearing. High near 47. Northeast winds turning west in the afternoon around 15 miles per hour.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 30. West winds around 15 miles per hour, gusting to 25 miles per hour.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy, with west winds around 20 miles per hour. High near 45.

John Homenuk

Forecast: Cooler air, more sun through Friday

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NAM Model showing a sharp gradient in temperatures at the 850mb level across the Northeast on Tuesday evening. Notice the much colder air moving towards the region from the west.

NAM Model showing a sharp gradient in temperatures at the 850mb level across the Northeast on Tuesday evening. Notice the much colder air moving towards the region from the west.

A cold front, which crossed the area Tuesday Night, will begin to usher in a much cooler and drier airmass by Wednesday morning. The warm air which was present in the area essentially from Sunday through Tuesday has been kicked off to the east, and west-northwesterly winds are bringing in much cooler air both aloft and at the surface. Although high temperatures will still reach the upper 40’s on Wednesday with full sunshine, another shot of cold air is expected by late afternoon with a chance of scattered showers. Things will feel much cooler especially by Wednesday Night — and if you’re looking for warmth we have bad news, it looks like the cold pattern is here to stay through the end of March.

The weather is expected to remain relatively fair through Friday with Thursday being the coldest day of the remaining three this week (highs only near 40 and blustery northwest winds). A storm system (another front with a shot of cold air) approaches by this weekend. Although precipitation is expected to be mainly rain with this system (Saturday), the airmass which is brings in by the weekend will be plenty cold for frozen precipitation as we move forward into next week. Although there are no specific events on our long range radar, the potential is certainly higher than usual for a late-March snow event. We’re keeping a close eye on it. Until then, here’s your forecast to close out the week.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers after noon. High near 50. West winds around 10 miles per hour.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Breezy, cooler, with a low around 30. West Winds 10 to 20 miles per hour.

Thursday: Sunny and cool with a high near 40. Northwest winds 15 to 20 miles per hour.

Friday: Mostly sunny with a high in the mid 40’s. West winds around 10 miles per hour.

John Homenuk

Clouds, showers expected through Tuesday PM

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NAM model showing heavy rain impacting the area Tuesday afternoon and evening along a cold front. Clearing is expected behind the front by Wednesday.

NAM model showing heavy rain impacting the area Tuesday afternoon and evening along a cold front. Clearing is expected behind the front by Wednesday.

Ahead of an approaching cold front, clouds and showers are expected to become more numerous throughout the area beginning late this Monday evening. Despite warm temperatures aloft (thanks to a mid and upper level ridge), southeast winds at the surface will keep the air cooler and damp through most of the area ahead of the approaching front. Low clouds and drizzle are a possibility throughout most of Tuesday. However, there is an isolated chance of some peaks of sun by Tuesday afternoon as winds turn more southerly. This usually occurs directly ahead of the front, so it will be short lived. A period of steady rain is likely Tuesday afternoon and evening as the front crosses the area from west to east, beginning in Western New Jersey and eventually making its way through NYC and Long Island.

Behind the front, winds will quickly shift from southeast to northwest with temperatures dropping accordingly. The new colder airmass will settle into the area by Wednesday with highs in the upper 40’s, but cold northwest winds keeping it chilly. The blustery west-northwest winds are expected to stick around through the end of the week — so enjoy the warm air while it’s still here!

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of drizzle. Lows in the lower to mid 40’s throughout most of the area, a bit warmer near the coast. Southeast winds 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain likely. The rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 50’s. Southeast winds turning southerly around 20 miles per hour.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with rain likely early, then clearing. Lows in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s.  Southerly winds turning west-northwest around 20 miles per hour.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers. Cooler, with a high in the upper 40’s. Blustery northwest winds around 20 miles per hour.