Concern rising for potential winter storm next week
The drum of what seems like an endless winter keeps beating on, and despite the warmth which has engulfed the area for a brief time this weekend, the beat will continue through the next 7 to 10 days. All forecast models agree on below normal temperature departures becoming a common theme from the Central to Eastern United States beginning Sunday and continuing through the greater part of the upcoming week. Making things more interesting, undoubtedly, is the signal for a major coastal storm system on all forecast models and their ensembles. This has forecasters and hobbyists alike raising an eyebrow with eyes peeled on the potential system, which could impact the Eastern and Northeast US early next week.
Simply ripping and reading off forecast model’s specific outputs at this range, however, will get you nowhere. We’ve been down this road many times — several times this winter alone. A few operational forecast models start to show snowstorms in the medium range, a few people share it on social networks with big dramatic words, and suddenly all of the NYC Metro Area is lining up at Home Depot and Walmart. What needs to be understood is that, at this range in specific, any specific solution or outcome on forecast models is somewhat unlikely — and the bigger storm systems have very intricate details that won’t be ironed out until the event draws nearer. The counterpoint, with this system, however is the overwhelming majority of guidance now showing the threat. And when that starts to occur on operational and ensemble guidance, it becomes prudent to look at the meteorology behind the potential system.