Posts

John Homenuk

NYC Forecast: Slow warming trend this week

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Cold weather has become a staple in the area forecast over the past several days, with the only warmup coming during a significant storm system — which produced the first rainfall of over 1″ since September in New York City. Otherwise, though, it has been a cold and dry pattern which has dominated the past several weeks. Some changes are in order during this week, but the start will be characterized by a slight warmup. Monday will be the first of a few “warmer” feeling days, with highs in the 40’s to near 50 in many spots as well as plenty of sun.

During the week, the airmass will slowly modify as a high pressure continues to control the pattern. High temperatures will reach into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s by the middle to second half of the work week. With the warmup, will come a chance of precipitation and the likelihood of clouds, which will move into the area as a warm front moves nears on Thursday.

NAM model, forecasting high temperatures in the upper 40's to lower 50's on Monday.

NAM model, forecasting high temperatures in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s on Monday.

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John Homenuk

Update: Freeze possible in area suburbs this week

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Wednesday AM Update: A weak coastal storm passing offshore, on a frontal boundary which crossed the area last night, is helping to develop some showers along the coast of New Jersey and along the shores of Long Island. The system will move quickly seaward today, owing to a fast and progressive pattern aloft. Temperatures this morning, away from the coast, fell into the 30s and 40s. Highs will reach only the mid 50s.

It is once the storm system passes, that west-northwesterly winds will begin in earnest — and they will usher in the coldest air of the year to date. Low temperatures on Wednesday Night into Thursday morning may fall into the lower 30s across the interior and 40s even in the city and urban areas. This would likely suffice for the first freeze of the year for many interior locations. But more notably in terms of sensible weather, high temperatures will only reach the mid 50s each day later this week, with a blustery wind expected. It will certainly feel more like autumn than it has at any point so far this year.

The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for Sussex County in NW NJ from 2:00 to 9:00am Thursday morning. Frost Advisories also in effect for Somerset, Morris, Hunterdon, Passaic, Bergen (NJ) Rockland, Putnam (NY) and Fairfield, New Haven (CT).

NAM model showing cold temperatures at 850mb moving into much of the Northern and Eastern US by Thursday.

NAM model showing cold temperatures at 850mb moving into much of the Northern and Eastern US by Thursday.

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John Homenuk

Forecast: Cold air intrudes this week

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The Northern Hemispheric pattern change, which we discussed last week, will finally come to fruition in terms of sensible weather in our area late this week. Several rounds of cold fronts have helped us “step down” into a much colder pattern, with arctic air intruding the Northern 1/3 of the United States during the middle to latter part of this upcoming week. The cold air will peak over the Northeast US late this week and into the weekend, as a mid level ridge on the West Coast of the US flexes its muscles, and multiple disturbances slide southeast into a large trough over the Eastern 1/3 of the US, reinforcing the cold air.

A weak coastal storm system is forecast to slide off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states on Wednesday, but forecast models are not impressed with the strength or potential precipitation from the system. Owing to the suddenly fast and progressive nature of the pattern, the storm is expected to slide east/northeast quickly off the coast, after a cold front passes the area. Behind the system, stiff west-northwesterly winds will push in the cold air. Overnight and morning low temperatures on both Thursday and Friday mornings will be the coldest of the season to date.

NAM model forecasting morning low temperatures in the 30's and 40's on Thursday morning. Friday morning may be several degrees colder.

NAM model forecasting morning low temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s on Thursday morning. Friday morning may be several degrees colder.

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John Homenuk

Forecast: Gorgeous, crisp fall weekend behind front

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Warmer and unsettled weather which affected the area late this week is on the way out, being pushed away by a cold front which pushed through the region Thursday Night. The first in a series of expected cold fronts through late next week, cooler and less humid air will spill into the region by Friday afternoon. Luckily, along with the cooler air will come pleasant conditions with clearing skies and light westerly winds. This weekends weather will be characterized by plenty of sunshine, and temperatures topping out in the upper 60s. As it looks now, another gem on a long running list of great weekends which stretched back to September.

Visible satellite imagery from the morning of October 18th, 2013 showing improving conditions behind a cold front.

Visible satellite imagery from the morning of October 18th, 2013 showing improving conditions behind a cold front.

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