Seasonable pattern to gradually transition to cold and active
Yet another period of rain hit the area last night, which has been a staple of the weather pattern this month. No big Arctic air intrusions as the Arctic air has remained bottled up near the Poles, and plenty of rain. Today was a mild afternoon as westerly flow in a merely stale chilly airmass led to downsloping flow and temperatures in the low 50s. Temperatures so far this month have actually been running around seasonable or only slightly above normal, but without true plunges of cold air and warmth in Canada, snow has been hard to come by.
This theme is expected to continue for the next week or so as the pattern finally truly shuffles and transitions to one where Arctic blasts are much more frequent across the US. But in the transition period itself, snow is generally still tough to come by.
Cold air advection will finally take shape tonight as temperatures aloft drop. But in a stale airmass, temperatures will generally only fall to around freezing in suburbs, and mid 30s in urban areas. This is a few degrees above average.
Moving forward to tomorrow, the airmass will be moderately chilly, but once again a northwesterly flow will downslope and help temperatures warm into the mid to upper 40s for most regions. Skies will remain mostly sunny throughout the day, with perhaps a few more clouds during the afternoon — though not a true overcast like we saw this afternoon. It will also be a bit blustery at times as well, with winds between 10 and 20mph.