The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut which is
valid through 10:00pm tonight. A line of showers and strong thunderstorms is currently located over Eastern Pennsylvania, and is moving eastward around 30 miles per hour. These storms are progressing into a moderately unstable environment over our area — supportive of the continued potential for heavy rain, lightning, damaging winds, and hail. One potential mitigating factor is the lack of supportive shear for more organized severe storms, but the potential looks to continue regardless…even though it may lessen some as the storms approach the coast and venture away from the supportive shear values.
Threats… The potential exists for damaging winds, large hail, and frequent lightning in these storms. In addition, very heavy rain and torrential downpours are likely as the storms move through the area. The storms will likely begin moving through the area quickly, so keep an eye to the sky at all times through tonight.
Timing… The storms will likely impact New Jersey between the hours of 7-8pm, and begin accelerating eastward, impacting Southeast NY, New York City, Long Island, and Southeast NJ between 8-9pm. Thereafter, the storms may impact Long Island before 10pm when the severe thunderstorm watch expires.