John Homenuk

Evening Update: Dreary weather settles in

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An unsettled and active weather pattern is upon us, putting an end to a long stretch of slightly above normal temperatures and very pleasant conditions with low humidity and clear skies. A frontal boundary near the area this evening will be the culprit behind the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms (although the storms appear pretty unlikely at this point with very little instability). These showers will remain in the area through the overnight hours as the disturbance moves along a mid level atmospheric gradient near our area. A break in the action is expected on Thursday, but we will be in between disturbances. By Thursday afternoon and evening, the chances for showers will increase yet again. Forecast models are hinting at the potential development of a low pressure area just south of Long Island very early Friday morning, which could bring some heavier/steadier rains to the area as well as a period of gusty winds especially on Long Island. Another system will move along the front and impact the area later in the weekend, from Saturday into Sunday with another chance of showers and steady rain. Temperatures throughout the period will run slightly below normal, especially on the second half of the weekend as the front sags south of the area and more cool/damp air is able to work in to the area.

Latest NYC-Area radar imagery courtesy of weather-underground shows the intensity and movement of precipitation over the last hour.

Wednesday Night: Continuing chances of showers throughout most of the night – but the front will begin to sink south of the area overnight. Temperatures will fall accordingly.

Thursday: This looks to be the most pleasant day of the second half of the week. In between disturbances – most models have partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70′s. Increasing clouds by the evening as the second disturbance approaches.

Thursday Night: Clouds increase and a chance of showers return ahead of a disturbance approaching the area. Low temperatures end up only near 60 degrees in the city and upper 50′s elsewhere due to the cloud cover.

Friday: More showers and clouds throughout the day with the area being affected by a mid level disturbance riding along a front which will be stalled near the area. Cooler and more damp with high temperatures in the 60′s in many locations.

John Homenuk

Midweek weather takes an unsettled turn

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An unusually long stretch of pleasant fall weather will come to an end on Wednesday, as mid level disturbances work towards the area, and a

Infrared satellite imagery from September 25th, 2012 showing the approaching disturbances that will affect our area Wed through Sun.

frontal boundary approaches and eventually stalls near or just south of the area. The result in sensible weather will be developing chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures on Wednesday will surge warmer than the past several days, ahead of the cold front, with high temperatures likely approaching 80 in spots. With showers and isolated storms around, the warm temperatures will mitigated somewhat. Beyond Wednesday, some clearing is expected on Thursday before the front returns on Friday — with our area sitting along a gradient with cold air to the north and warmer air to our south. Temperatures in the 60’s will return on Friday and Saturday with a chance of showers and clouds on both days. Beyond this, things should begin to look up a bit with clearing expected behind the disturbances.

Keep reading past the break for the daily breakdown of the forecast from our Forecast Overview!

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Another cool night on the way

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The cool airmass which was in place throughout the area on Monday will remain through Monday Night and most of Tuesday, with a cool overnight period and early morning expected on Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the

NAM Model forecasting low temperatures in the 40’s inland and 50’s in New York City for the morning of Tuesday 9/25/12.

40’s once again over the interior suburbs of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. Temperatures on Sunday Night/Monday morning bottomed out in the upper 30’s in some isolated locations including the Pine Barrens of Central New Jersey, the Northwest NJ Hills, and much of Interior New England. Although temperatures could end up a few degrees warmer overnight Monday Night into Tuesday, the general trend will continue to be an autumn airmass which is more cool and crisp than anything to push through the region since early last Spring. Still, a warmup in the middle of the week should serve as a reminder that we are still very early in the Autumn season, and temperatures are forecast to rise into the 80’s ahead of a cold front which will pass the area Wednesday. Some showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible with the frontal passage — with another cooldown expected thereafter, leading us to the end of the work week.

Keep reading past the break  for more information on the forecast — and a fall foliage update!

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John Homenuk

First signs of fall foliage begin, right on schedule

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It’s almost theatrical how, without fail, the first signs of fall foliage begin to show their colors (no pun intended) within a few days of the calendar start of the Autumn season. With autumn set to begin this Saturday, September 22 2012, it should

Fall foliage color data, courtesy of The Foliage Network. Image and data valid as of September 19th, 2012.

be no surprise to anyone that the first signs of fall colors are appearing over parts of New England, Southeast New York, and Northern New Jersey. Now, it should be mentioned that these colors can typically take a few weeks to work their way down to the immediate suburbs of New York City, as well as Central New Jersey, Connecticut and Long Island. Yet, one can already observe hints of the impending explosion of natural color in the tips of trees or those exposed to more sun than others on a daily basis. Some will spend the next few weeks longing for one more warm, muggy summer night while others will be teeming with excitement as the colors fill the trees and warn of the impending winter. Our friends at the Foliage Network provide excellent map analysis of the progression of the leaf color and leaf drop through the Northeast United States. Their latest report, pictured in this post from September 19th 2012, shows Low color spreading throughout much of New England and even into the mountains of Northern New Jersey.

All of this is a lot to take in, but there’s even more interest to it! Despite a usually timely start, each season provides different foliage timing and patterns depending on the weather patterns and temperatures. For instance, comparing the report from September 19th 2012 to the report from September 17th, 2011 (just a two day difference) shows that we are way ahead of last years pace at this point. The “Low color” category foliage is hundreds of miles farther south and more widespread throughout New England. As the season gets going, we’ll be sure to keep you updated on the foliage progression!

In addition, we’ve opened a Flickr Group to our readers and subscribers (yes, it’s free) for all to post their fall foliage pictures throughout the season. The group will remain open for the future, as well, hopefully serving as a central point for NYC weather and nature related photography. We can’t wait to see your best photos!