Doug Simonian

To Spring or not to Spring? That is the Question.

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Upon waking up to another chilly morning, most of us are probably wondering when Spring is coming. For those west of NYC, it probably arrives on Monday and Tuesday, but for those east of New York City, we might have to wait until April 15th or so. Forecast models are struggling immensely with the positioning of a warm front for next week, which throws lots of wrenches into the forecast.

A storm system will head up the coast on Friday and shoot into the Canadian Maritimes this weekend, and strengthen as it does so. That will help to keep things relatively chilly for the weekend, with the cooler northerly flow behind it. Once that storm system gets far enough to our north, heights will begin to rise, and this is when the potential warm-up begins. This is also when the European model and the GFS model really begin to diverge. The biggest difference is the way they handle a huge upper level low in Canada. The GFS splits the ULL into two and elongates it, while the Euro keeps it one large entity that dominates the pattern. The differences begin as soon as 84 hours (Sunday morning), as the GFS is already showing signs of splitting the feature and elongating it, while the Euro is much more powerful. Implications of this will be explained shortly.

The 00z Euro has the ULL as a much more powerful feature.

The 00z Euro at 84 hours has the ULL as a much more powerful feature.

The 00z GFS at 84 hours is splitting the ULL and elongating it.

The 00z GFS at 84 hours is splitting the ULL and elongating it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One thing we do know is that it is clear that there are still remnants of the past blocking pattern in place. There are cutoff portions of very high heights in northern Canada; thus favoring closed off ULLs to form downstream. These patterns do not tend to run very warm, but the good news is that the core of the blocking for the most part is oriented a bit to the west of the NAO regions. Both models agree on a vigorous shortwave entering the Pacific NW, but it will not be allowed to race eastward, due to the ULL and the blocking. Thus, it is instead forced southward, underneath the block.
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John Homenuk

PM Update: Cool evening, slow warmup begins

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NAM model showing a low pressure system with rain missing the area to the south and east on Friday. Some clouds and showers are still possible and should graze coastal areas.

NAM model showing a low pressure system with rain missing the area to the south and east on Friday. Some clouds and showers are still possible and should graze coastal areas.

Cold air remains settled into the area this evening, and Wednesday was another cold and blustery day. Temperatures remained several degrees below normal for this time of year. Another cold night is expected, as well, with overnight lows falling into the 20’s inland and near 30 in the city and along the coast. We could, in fact, see some temperatures approaching record lows for the date early Thursday morning. The good news, however, is that a slow moderation is expected through the end of the week and into the weekend.

A coastal system will brush the area from late Thursday into Friday, possibly providing some clouds and showers along the immediate shore. Behind the system rising heights aloft will bring the potential for warmer temperatures into the forecast by Friday through Sunday. Highs will reach into the 50’s this weekend. The warmup could become even more dramatic by the early to middle part of next week – but forecast models are still very inconsistent with the positioning of a warm front. If it clears our area, temperatures could soar into the 70’s. We will see!

Tonight: Cool and clear with lows falling into the 20’s and lower 30’s. Northwest winds continuing around 10 miles per hour.

Thursday: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer, with highs in the lower 50’s. Northwest winds around 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Thursday Night: Increasing clouds, with a low in the upper 30’s to near 40. South winds around 10 miles per hour.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. Warmer, with a high near 57. North-northwest wind around 10 miles per hour.

 

John Homenuk

Unseasonably cold air hangs on through mid-week

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NAM Model showing 850mb temperatures of -10 C and colder throughout the area Wednesday morning. These are unseasonably cold numbers for this time of year.

NAM Model showing 850mb temperatures of -10 C and colder (pink) throughout the area Wednesday morning. These are unseasonably cold numbers for this time of year.

A strong cold front, which crossed the area late Monday evening, ushered in another fresh and cool airmass. This airmass is expected to remain in place through the middle and end of the week. Not only is the airmass cool, but it is unseasonably cold. New York City’s Central Park observed a low temperature of 34 degrees on Tuesday morning, which is the lowest temperature recorded in April in the New York City Metro area since April of 2008. The cold air looks to provide colder nights and blustery west-northwest winds during the day, making it feel much more like late winter than early Spring.

By late week, the airmass will finally begin to lose its grip on the area. But overall, temperatures will continue to run below normal until the start of the weekend. Looking ahead, (yes, we’re ready for the warmth too) it looks like moderation may finally attempt to work toward the area by the weekend into early next week. Forecast models, however, are struggling with the details…and this will determine the extent of the warmth and how long it lasts. We’ll be keeping a close eye on it for sure. Stay tuned!

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Blustery west-northwest winds will continue between 10 and 20 miles per hour. Feeling cold, especially in the morning.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with lows in the mid 20’s to lower 30’s. Cold. West-northwest winds around 10 miles per hour.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. West winds continue around 10 to 15 miles per hour.

John Homenuk

Opening Day Forecast: Brief warmth will welcome baseball

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NAM Model forecasting temperatures in the lower 60's on Monday afternoon in the NYC Area, just in time for 2013 Opening Day for both the Yankees and Mets.

NAM Model forecasting temperatures in the lower 60’s on Monday afternoon in the NYC Area, just in time for 2013 Opening Day for both the Yankees and Mets. Cold air looms to the west.

Baseball returns to the New York City Metro Area on Monday during Major League Baseball’s 2013 Opening Day. In a rare event, the Yankees and Mets will both be at home for opening day. The Yankees take on the Boston Red Sox in the first game of the season at Yankee Stadium, while the Mets battle the Padres at Citi Field. Both games will be afternoon affairs – starting at 1:00pm (or a bit after due to ceremonies).  The weather, fortunately, looks to cooperate. Directly ahead of a cold front to the west, afternoon temperatures should warm up into the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Some clouds will be around, but the early afternoon warmth will be fitting for the first day of New York baseball since last Autumn.

The cold front will quickly move in by afternoon, though, and it will bring a chance of scattered showers. The main event, though, will be the cold air which moves in behind the front itself. Southwest winds ahead of the front will abruptly shift to west-northwest and increase. Colder air will advect into the area beginning Monday evening, with a much cooler than normal airmass expected to be in place Tuesday through Thursday. We’ve included our quick forecast below.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of showers. Warm and partly cloudy early, with clouds increasing and a chance of a shower after noon. Highs in the lower 60’s. Southwest winds turning west by evening around 10 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy and cooler. Low in the lower 30’s. West winds around 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Colder with a high in the mid 40’s. West-northwest winds around 20 mph.