March 2014 - Page 2 of 6 - New York Metro Weather

Strongest storm of season likely to spare our area

March 24, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

In what will all but certainly be winters dying breath, a large and powerful coastal storm will develop Tuesday into Wednesday off the southeast states while traversing northeastward to a position southeast of the 40/70 benchmark. In doing so, and owing to a major phase in the mid levels of the atmosphere, the storm will strengthen rapidly and explosively — dropping from around 990mb to somewhere in the 950’s mb. This will make the system the strongest of the season by far, and the strongest in our area since Hurricane Sandy.

The aforementioned phase involves three disturbances which originate from different parts of the mid level flow and jet stream. Pacific and polar energy will merge over the Northeast United States, and a favorable jet structure will allow for rapid strengthening of the low pressure system. More notable for us, however, is how all of this will occur a hair too slow and a tick too far east/northeast — allowing us to dodge what would’ve otherwise been an incredibly high impact storm system.

NAM model showing a major storm system developing offshore, barely grazing the coast.

Powerful ocean storm likely, worst impacts may stay seaward

March 23, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

A mid and upper level atmospheric phase is likely to force the development of a significant coastal storm, which will rapidly develop off the East Coast early next week. The storm system is expected to begin strengthening off the southeast coast of the United States, before shifting northeastward over time. As a phase between multiple disturbances occurs in the mid levels of the atmosphere, and the mid and upper level jet streaks become favorable for strengthening, the surface low pressure will deepen rapidly and the storm system will mature.

Forecast models have come into better agreement over the past few cycles in regards to the track and intensity of the system, namely the area where the system will strengthen most as a result of the occurring phase. Arguably the most notable development in terms of sensible weather in our area, is the fact that the system will “hook” eastward before phasing, taking a track from a point southeast of the Outer Banks to a position south of the 40/70 benchmark. This likely will spare our area from significant precipitation in direct relation to the coastal low, as well as more widespread wind or coastal flooding impacts.

Euro model showing a significant storm a few hundred miles off the Northeast US Coast early next week.

Concern rising for potential winter storm next week

March 20, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The drum of what seems like an endless winter keeps beating on, and despite the warmth which has engulfed the area for a brief time this weekend, the beat will continue through the next 7 to 10 days. All forecast models agree on below normal temperature departures becoming a common theme from the Central to Eastern United States beginning Sunday and continuing through the greater part of the upcoming week. Making things more interesting, undoubtedly, is the signal for a major coastal storm system on all forecast models and their ensembles. This has forecasters and hobbyists alike raising an eyebrow with eyes peeled on the potential system, which could impact the Eastern and Northeast US early next week.

Simply ripping and reading off forecast model’s specific outputs at this range, however, will get you nowhere. We’ve been down this road many times — several times this winter alone. A few operational forecast models start to show snowstorms in the medium range, a few people share it on social networks with big dramatic words, and suddenly all of the NYC Metro Area is lining up at Home Depot and Walmart. What needs to be understood is that, at this range in specific, any specific solution or outcome on forecast models is somewhat unlikely — and the bigger storm systems have very intricate details that won’t be ironed out until the event draws nearer. The counterpoint, with this system, however is the overwhelming majority of guidance now showing the threat. And when that starts to occur on operational and ensemble guidance, it becomes prudent to look at the meteorology behind the potential system.

GFS model showing a significant coastal storm staying east of the area early next week.

Clouds, rain preclude late week warmup

March 19, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

A relentless winter pattern will come to a brief respite during the latter half of the work week and into the weekend, news which many have longed to hear. However brief the warmup may be, it will come with impeccable timing as calendar spring officially begins on Thursday March 21st. Nevertheless, it will come with a price as the second half of Wednesday will feature thickening clouds and a high likelihood of showers and periods of steady rain. A weak low pressure system developing nearby will help provide sufficent lift for a period of steady rain, developing from southwest to northeast later on Wednesday afternoon.

With the passage of a weak front and the aforementioned low pressure system by Thursday morning, will come a modifying airmass and (finally) a lack of new cold or arctic air. High temperatures, as a result, will reach into the 50’s on Thursday and Friday. Mid level ridging developing overhead late Friday night into Saturday will help to raise mid level temperatures additionally, so high temperatures are expected to approach 60 degrees early Saturday afternoon.

Simulated radar imagery for mid-evening on Wednesday showing widespread rain in the area.

Archive for month: March, 2014