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Gradually improving, slightly warmer weather

The same mid-level cutoff low that helped bring the heavy rain and strong winds on Tuesday, as well as multiple days of snow showers since, is still meandering in the vicinity of the Northeast US today. This has helped to keep an island of cold in an otherwise sea of warmth across much of the US, as well as instability and moisture to produce wrap-around snow showers.

Impressive lapse rates have remained over the region over the past few days, allowing for the continuation of snow showers and squalls. They’ll be much more isolated on Friday, however, as the upper level low finally begins to pull away. As it does so, it will remove our area from the pocket of stronger instability. So, we expect highs in the upper 30’s to near 40 on Friday with a much lower chance of snow showers — in fact, cloudy to partly cloudy skies should be the general rule.

Tonight will be another chilly night, but it won’t be as windy, with temperatures falling into the upper 20’s to around 30. With mid and low level temperatures still quite cold throughout the region, it will still feel very wintry. But the northwesterly winds won’t be quite as blustery.

NAM model showing an upper level low moving out of the Northeast and a mid level ridge moving toward our area.

The general theme through the weekend will be the upper level low shifting away, and allowing for mid level heights to rise. Temperatures will trend warmer by Saturday with highs in the mid 40’s. The pattern in the mid and upper levels throughout the United States is much warmer than the one we’ve been experiencing underneath the cutoff low for the past few days — and we’ll start to feel the effects of that as it moves away.

By the early part of next week, high temperatures will be several degrees warmer than they were this weekend. The next chance for precipitation won’t come until the mid part of the week as a mid level disturbance approaches the area. So while the pattern may be somewhat cold — we can hang our hats on the fact that there aren’t any significant storms in the forecast for now.

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